A Second Hand Conjecture

RedState launches Operation Leper to expose recently unemployed McCain aides who are trying to pin their failures on Sarah Palin. Hardly unexpected. As Grover Norquist noted yesterday, the only time the McCain campaign led the polls was during the two weeks when Sarah dominated the cycle. When it switched back to McCain, sayonara.

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It occurs to me that the sequence of cocktails is the best political indicator I know of on election night. In 2004 I was attending a Democratic election party and early on everyone was drinking wine and martinis in stemware, or beer and soda in tall glasses. The ambiance befit the beverages: general levity and [...]

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Fewer and fewer people are paying income tax and even less will be with either candidates tax plan. I don’t think this would be such a problem if we didn’t have such high spending, growing entitlements, and if so many of these zero income tax filers weren’t getting additional handouts from the government (especially under [...]

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You’ve probably heard that John McCain has denounced Barack Obama’s ’spread the wealth’ formulation for tax policy as socialism. It’s an inflammatory but not unjustified charge, as a good definition for socialism is the equitable distribution of wealth to the community, coercively enforced by law.
But here’s a troubling aspect: suppose the electorate doesn’t mind if [...]

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Video of Laura Ingraham interrogating Christopher Hitchens over his rather weakly supported endorsement of Barack Obama for president.
Hitch’s primary position in this chat is that Obama should be supported because he is “evolving” toward support of a more aggressive policy against international terrorism. Hardly the most persuasive pitch to say the least. Perhaps all those [...]

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What a day for indignity. Just when I’d stopped shaking my head at the image of Paul Krugman accepting the Nobel Prize, I read two of my most cherished heroes offering rather embarrassing endorsements for bad things.
Christopher Hitchens, always aloof from the elderly McCain, has been pushed into a categorical and insulting rejection in Slate, [...]

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Had the radio on driving to get coffee. Rush Limbaugh was denouncing sexism and patriarchal privilege. McCain ad comes on pitching expanding embryonic stem cell research. Boy, haven’t things changed in the Republican party? For the better, says me.

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For two weeks, as John McCain’s national polls first rose above Obama and then solidified there, Democrats protested that the popular vote was irrelevant. Look to the state polls said they, in a sensible but amusingly opportunistic argument for the electoral college (for those of us who recall the venom of 2000). Alas, this was [...]

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Tim Reid travels to Mount Clemens, Macomb County Michigan, to talk to white working class female voters. Macomb County should be core Democratic blue country, but it was here that Stanley Greenberg first identified the “Reagan Democrats” of the 1980s, and Reid thinks we just might be seeing the ground shift once again:
The Times spoke [...]

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Obama’s “new” tactic to regain the initiative in the election is to portray McCain as out of touch with ordinary Americans. Hmm. Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t this the old tactic? Patrician wife, seven houses, price of milk, Salvatore Ferragamo footwear and so forth. I seem to remember that being the heart of [...]

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Toby Harnden weighs in with his thoughts on the Palin effect. All interesting, all very astute IMO.
Of particular interest is Toby’s argument that McCain commands enough public respect for his experience and expertise, that he has no concerns about being eclipsed by Sarah. Because of that, he’s perfectly comfortable to ride in her publicity tailwind, [...]

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Panic grips the Hill, with Democrats planning to distance themselves from Obama and/or abandon criticism of McCain. Geez. Snap out of it guys. You have the most compelling presidential candidate you’ve had since perhaps John F. Kennedy. Almost every conditional variable in the election is heavily slanted in your favor. If you can’t win this [...]

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Seth Weinberger picks up Foreign Policy’s “10 Worst Policy Ideas” for Obama and McCain and adds some commentary. What’s immediately striking to me is how few objections FP offers to McCain’s foreign policy proposals. A peculiar thing, if you’re familiar with the doctrinal tilt of the pub. There’s really only one they single out against [...]

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Ron Hilton caught some great shots at the McCain/Palin rally in Fairfax, Virginia. He was gracious enough to let us post them here for you:

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According to the Associated Press, a sequence of interviews with Democratic leaders has revealed this to be the political plan being recommended to the Obama campaign:
1. Tie the Republican to an unpopular President Bush.
2. Let no charge go unanswered.
3. Stress plans to fix the economy.
Well, I’m not sure any of these items is good advice, [...]

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Last week I noticed that Sarah Palin had exceeded Joe Biden slightly in Google returns. Understandably, that has now become an avalanche (Biden: 5.6 million | Palin: 22.4 million). Although it plainly doesn’t exceed John McCain or Barack Obama’s returns as Robert Legge strangely argues.

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Longtime Clinton ally Leon Panetta pronounces Barack Obama “intimidated” by Sarah Palin, and lost in a deepening cycle of reactive defense. With McCain now winning a majority of independents and erasing the gender gap, the blood is most definitely in the water. It’s now a legitimate question to ask whether McCain can finish him off. [...]

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According to a new Rasmussen survey 62% of Americans believe encouraging economic growth is more important than reducing income inequality. 51% also say the federal government exerts too much control over our economy as it stands. It would be wise of the McCain campaign to emphasize which candidates value which most.

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Caroline Glick via Ace of Spades
Caroline Glick is an astute observer of our political situation. She is based in Jerusalem.
“McCain’s strategic grasp of the requirements for a successful
presidential race provide an important lesson for policy-makers and
political leaders.”

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Jennifer Rubin becomes the latest to reconsider the merits of McCain’s convention acceptance speech. It’s interesting how many people on the political right are reevaluating it really. Like Jennifer, my own reaction was that it was unremarkable. I told friends that it failed to connect, but I held off on criticizing it very aggressively on [...]

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Jihad Watch
I have seen a few articles that say something like - if the left dislikes McCan-Palin so much they must be doing something right. Here is a similar argument about views from the Muslim world. “whenever your taqiyya-practicing enemy tries to give you “advice” — such as who or who not to [...]

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How many children does John McCain have? It’s seven including adoptions, but very few seem to know that. Easier question: how many children does Sarah Palin have? Five and I bet you knew that instantly. Welcome to sexism says liberal feminist Linda Keenan, in a profound and important confessional apology to Sarah.

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The atrocious background colors displayed on the silly jumbotron during John McCain’s convention speech shouldn’t have been difficult to avoid. As BestWeekEver sadly illustrates, almost anything would have been an improvement. The solid pastel blue and green backgrounds made their Photoshopping easy at least.

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Patterico’s PontificationsThis didn’t seem possible just a few months ago.

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Todd Zywicki, of the Volokh Conspiracy, takes a look at libertarianism in the McCain/Palin ticket and notes a distinct western vibe to the first all-western ticket in our history. He had an interesting observation that I think captures a lot of our hesitation about McCain.
The only caveat to this is that McCain’s westernism is tempered [...]

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Schwarzenegger’s former top strategist Steve Schmidt turned John McCain’s campaign from a dithering defensive wreck, into the aggressive machine that’s been taking the fight to Obama all summer. Most of all, he’s the man who finally got John McCain to stay on message after decades of failure by others.

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According to the McCain campaign via NRO, the teleprompter had a glitch throughout the entire Palin speech. It continued to roll without pause for applause and thus would have been badly out of sync for her. Had no effect at all that I could discern on her delivery. Pretty impressive actually.

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The title is what Time Magazine labeled New Jersey’s Senator William Warren Barbour in 1940. The expression takes on a better curve for Sarah Palin, but it fits the occasion of a very partisan and frankly rather phenomenal speech tonight (transcript).
I suppose I’m surprised by the surprise in so many media reactions I’m seeing. [...]

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Yep:
Understand: Palin is under attack because she was such a good choice.
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After years of electing plasticized creations of political consultants, we have the chance to vote for a real person with real peoples’ problems. In standing by her, McCain speaks volumes about his attitude toward women and his empathy for those who [...]

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Be honest, wouldn’t you rather see Barack Obama vs Sarah Palin and John McCain vs Joe Biden in the debates?

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He’s actually starting to run against Sarah Palin:
“My understanding is that Gov. Palin’s town, Wassilla, has I think 50 employees. We’ve got 2500 in this campaign. I think their budget is maybe 12 million dollars a year – we have a budget of about three times that just for the month,”
(CNN via Adam’s Blog)
No, no, [...]

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John McCain, in an interview with Brian Williams on Sarah Palin:
“The facts are funny things. She’s been in elected office longer than Sen. Obama. She’s been the chief executive of the state that provides 20 percent of America’s energy; she has balanced budgets; she has had executive experience as governor, as mayor, [...]

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Looking at today’s stats, so far the number one search engine keyword bringing people to ASHC is “obama vs palin.” It’s amusing that people seem to think the Republican vice presidential nominee bears easier comparison and contest with the Democratic presidential nominee. I can only agree with them.

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Andrew Sullivan is so hysterical about the “irresponsibility” of Sarah Palin as vice president, that he’s almost to the point of arguing that McCain didn’t even know her name until an hour before the announcement. As Neo-Neocon contends however, the Palin selection is demonstrative of skill on the part of McCain (something very unexpected by [...]

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A bit of a departure from the Bush/Cheney experience in 2000 and 2004.

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Perhaps those Zogby numbers weren’t so crazy after all.  CNN confirms the erasure of the Obama lead on an apparent Sarah Palin bounce.

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It has become a serious question to ask if there is any argument in Obama’s perceived interest that Andrew Sullivan will not advance. In the latest project for that question, Sullivan argues that Palin represents the most “irresponsible” pick for the office of Vice President since Dan Quayle, on grounds of her alleged inexperience. It’s [...]

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I’m beginning to sense that anti-Palin hysteria is building toward a collective psychological meltdown of truly epic proportions on the Democratic side of our political divide. Today, Democratic consultant Dan Conley angrily pushed us a little further to the brink of that by arguing that the selection of Palin by McCain was “cynical, undemocratic and [...]

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RightWingNation has some good photographs from the Pennsylvania McCain/Palin rally. Evidently the crowd kept drowning Sarah out with adulatory chants.

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She raised less than $500k for the Alaska governor’s race in 2006. But as McCain’s running mate, Palin’s inaugurated a seven million dollar surge in donations to the McCain campaign. Given the excitement (near ecstasy, really) on the political right over the selection, it’s not difficult to see why. Put her on a stage anywhere [...]

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Everyone’s jumping on the Zogby poll, which alone seems to show McCain/Palin taking the lead over Obama/Biden. I personally find such a result hard to believe in the extreme. Rasmussen’s finding that Palin might have arrested the slide seems more plausible; a complete reversal of fortune is a bit much to expect. However, what would [...]

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Well, here is an embarrassing prospect. It seems the Republican leadership may boycott the Republican convention in Minnesota, for fear of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
The top elected Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, was already boycotting. But now we learn that President Bush is said to be unlikely to attend, whilst Senator McCain may [...]

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Pro-McCain sign at rally.

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The hard sacrifices of the unselected.

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The explosion of enthusiasm for Palin on just about every conservative blog and media outlet has apparently gone unnoticed at the DailyKos, which is predicting that Sarah represents a divisive force, who will soon fracture and ultimately destroy the Republican party. Hmm.
Now, there has always been a tendency among ideological people to retreat to fantasy [...]

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Hot Air - Ed Morrissey“Would you rather have the man who set the trap dealing with our enemies abroad, or the man who fell into it?”

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I cited Victor Davis Hanson’s NRO post earlier in an easy defense of Palin, but there’s another point therein worth mention: Palin as agent of change for McCain, personally.
On energy, [Sarah Palin] will either blunt McCain’s unreasonable opposition to ANWR, or, in fact — as an Alaskan pro-driller — give him the opening necessary to [...]

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Paul Begala laments the fact that McCain didn’t select a vice presidential candidate who is more traditional, old, boring, uninspiring…in essence, an ossified agent of the establishment, like Joe Biden for instance.
Well, he doesn’t quite phrase it that way, but it’s the political implication of his complaint. Reviewing his catalog of allegedly superior selections, I [...]

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Obama moves to distance himself from his own campaign’s harshly antagonistic rhetoric against Palin. Commendable, but probably unwise. Palin represents a direct threat to one of Obama’s core constituencies and thus it would be to his advantage to define her negatively and fast. Even if the ‘inexperience’ attack is hopelessly misguided for obvious reasons.

[...]

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Now even James Dobson, who famously refused to vote Republican this year on social conservative grounds, has endorsed McCain thanks to Palin.

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