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Category Archives: Investing
Taking a Closer Look at Unemployment
Employment as measured by the “establishment survey,” was down by 190,000; and Many feel it is an improvement that we are not falling as fast. Well, let us take a moment to look under the hood of these numbers. First, … Continue reading
Big Banks Got Played
A Daring Trade Has Wall Street Seething from the Wall Street Journal. Amherst, a small Austin firm found a small loophole in the system. To use a crude metaphor, they sold the big banks hurrican insurance and then made sure … Continue reading
Peter Schiff’s Payback
The insufferable Peter Schiff has a video going around, which frankly, is just brilliant. He may be unpleasant at times, but he nailed this thing, and took mounds of abuse while doing so. More importantly, I KNOW HOW HE FEELS! … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged credit crisis, debt, Economics, finance, Investing, Peter Schiff, risk
3 Comments
1948 After All
Interesting: [W]e are on pace for the worst reaction to an election since Truman won in 1948. Interestingly, the only times the DJIA has ever declined by more than 1% [are] the day after a presidential election when the Democratic Party won complete control. (Bespoke)
Posted in Domestic Politics, Election 2008, Investing
Tagged 1948, Democratic Party, DJIA, Dow Jones, harry truman, Obama, Stock market, Truman
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The View From Here
I wonder if the juxtaposition of that headline and that photo was intentional? Anyway, over at Risk and Return I follow up Dale, McQ and my discussion of the markets and the economy during the last couple of podcasts with … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged bailout, Investing, LA Times, the economy
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Stock and Awe in Baghdad
The Markets have spoken, the best place to invest in the world is…Iraq! Now it’s stock and awe in Baghdad! As the Dow plummeted nearly 700 points yesterday to fall well below the 9,000 mark, the Iraqi stock exchange – … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Foreign affairs, Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged Bull Market, Iraq, Stock market, Wall Street
2 Comments
Strategery Capital Management LLC
A new distressed debt leveraged hedge fund has been launched: Go visit the website for all their competitive advantages!
Posted in Economics, Humor, Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged Ben Bernanke, credit crisis, distressed debt, George Bush, Hank Paulson, hedge funds
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The SEC doesn’t get the short end of the stick
If they did, then they wouldn’t have banned short selling. People may have noticed that the ban hasn’t helped, and today we see one of the real costs. See, when markets collapse like today, short sellers dive into the market … Continue reading
Short of Wisdom, Common Sense and a Grasp of Reality
The hedge fund industry is feeling gloomy, and so is Mayfair. Meanwhile our government is considering following London’s lead and making their lives even more difficult, by banning short selling for a while. Yep, Fannie would have been just fine … Continue reading
Posted in Domestic Politics, Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged bailout, Christopher Cox, markets, S.E.C, short sellers, stocks
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Uprecedented Financial Turmoil
Today the Fed went to the Treasury and asked for a line of credit. You know, the lender of last resort has had to turn to our Treasury to protect their balance sheet. Want to see something weird. Go here … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged Bonds, Federal Reserve, finance, financial markets, Investing, money markets, Treasury Bills
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Are we in a recession yet?
Personally I think we have been negative since November. Given the large positive number in the third quarter, the barely above break even number in the fourth quarter virtually guarantees that the economy went negative sometime in November and December. … Continue reading
The Nationalization of the Housing Market
Regular readers know that I have been harping on the likely collapse in housing since this blog began. At this point I am hardly an outlier in being concerned, which means now the politicians and experts are ready to ride … Continue reading
Posted in Domestic Politics, Economics, Investing, Lance's Page, regulation
Tagged Domestic Politics, housing, mortgage crisis, subprime, the economy
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The Grinding Gears of the Economy
The Fourth quarter GDP numbers came in this week, and then the Fed went ahead and cut rates further. That is 125 basis points in about a week.! I have a roundup of news, related opinion and other reactions at … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged Economics, economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, Investing
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The Fraud Unseen
(cross posted at Risk and Return) So, we now have a new record for trader fraudulently losing billions on bad trades. Nick Leeson will soon join the 1972 Dolphins as great, but behind by the numbers. Just like then I … Continue reading
Posted in Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged fraud, market, Melissa Theuriau, risk, Societe General, trading
3 Comments
The Harley Report
As I noted earlier, Dale Franks was curious about how Harley Davidson (HOG) would do on its latest earnings release: One earnings report to watch this week, though, is Harley-Davidson (HOG). It’s a solid company with a loyal customer base—I’m … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing
Tagged earnings, Economics, economy, Harley Davidson, HOG, Investing, luxury goods, motorcycles, recession
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The Global Correction
(Cross posted at Risk and Return) This is a very cool look at the market carnage of the last few days geographically from the Wall Street Journal. You can go from one day to the next and watch how the … Continue reading
Posted in Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged bear market, correction, global equities, Stock market
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Indexing Capital Gains
Richard Rahn pushes for the indexing of capital gains due to inflation as part of the stimulus. Accounting for inflation in this way has the advantages of producing more short-term revenue to the Treasury as long-term gains are “unlocked.” Furthermore, … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Election 2008, Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged capital gains, Economics, fiscal stimulus, inflation, IRS, taxes
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Fed Cuts Interest Rate 75bps!
From The New York Times: WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve, confronted with a global stock sell-off fanned by increased fears of a recession, cut a key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday. Quicker and larger … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged Federal Reserve, interest rates, stock markets
7 Comments
Overseas Markets Plunge Again
From the New York Times: Heavy selling hit each Asian and European stock market as soon as it opened. Some of Asia’s easternmost exchanges, which had closed on Monday before the sharpest declines occurred in India and then Europe, suffered … Continue reading
Posted in Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged Asia, Europe, international stocks, markets
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Today’s links: Washington tries to step up
(cross posted at Risk and Return) Ben Bernanke gives Congress and the President the green light to take steps to stimulate the economy along with a warning:
ChrisB and the Federal Reserve
Chris asked what he thought the Federal Reserve could have done differently. I gave him an answer, but there was more to be said. My full answer is here. Scroll around, there is a lot more on the what could … Continue reading
Today’s links: The Housing Market
(cross posted at Risk and Return) Paper Economy has taken a close look at what it will take to get inflation adjusted housing prices in Massachusetts back to trend over a five year period. It should be noted that for … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
Tagged Citigroup, Claifornia, Economics, housing, Lennar, Massachusetts, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, mortgages, OFHEO, real estate, recession, Shiller, William Lyon Homes
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President’s and Markets
Alea notices that a widely cited paper claiming that Democratic Presidents are better than Republican presidents for the stock market doesn’t hold water: This paper shows that the statistical tests applied by the authors of the study were wrong, and … Continue reading
Posted in Domestic Politics, Economics, Investing
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My Next Project
We have a number of things in the works over the next few days here at A Second Hand Conjecture. We will let you know more over the next couple of days. I can only say I am extremely excited. … Continue reading
Posted in Baton Rouge, Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
6 Comments
Apple Reshapes Another Industry
A fascinating look at the development of the iPhone and its impact upon the structure of the telecom industry. More than being a snazzy and popular device, the iPhone has changed how the relationship between players in the telecom industry … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Lance's Page, Media, Technology
Tagged Apple, cell phones, Economics, Investing, iPhone, phones, Steve Jobs, telecommunications
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The Housing Crisis
I think this explains it better than I have, at least it is more entertaining: [youtube SJ_qK4g6ntM] [tags] housing, investing, economics, hedge funds, mortgage debt, crisis, humor [/tags]
Posted in Economics, Humor, Investing, Lance's Page
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The Google effect
Elise Ackerman gives us the rundown on the cascading effect of Google’s IPO and growth: A Mercury News analysis of company documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission provides a rough estimate of the wealth that erupted from the … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
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More Islamic Finance
Returning to an old subject we haven’t discussed in a while, I suggest this article on a couple of funds run by Islamic principles. Given the difficulties the financial sector is having a fund which avoids them (because they profit … Continue reading
Posted in Investing, Lance's Page
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Living History
Does the blogosphere make history more relevant? Is it possible that Santayana’s famous admonishment is made less likely by bloggers routinely wielding history as a foil to those arguments favoring actions proven desultory in the past? And that’s not to … Continue reading
Posted in Domestic Politics, Economics, History, Investing, Libertarianism, MichaelW's Page
1 Comment
Regulation and disclosure often destroys information
From Robert Lawson: I hopped on the Chipotle website the other day looking for nutritional information on my favorite meal (carnitas burrito, rice, black beans, mild, hot, and green salsa, lettuce). But thanks to the nanny state, THEY CAN’T TELL … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Lance's Page, regulation
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The reassertion of the risk premium
One of the sure signs that problems are a pretty likely outcome is when risk is priced at levels which are unlikely to pay enough to adequately reward investors over time. When the world gets a bit too complacent, conditions … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
2 Comments
Pity Poor Wall Street
Mickey Kaus gets it right: “My people have been in this game for 25 years . . . They are losing their jobs”: I thought Wall Streeters were paid big money because they took big risks. Capitalism, etc. But when … Continue reading
Posted in Domestic Politics, Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
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Are Hedge Funds Worth It?
Dave Leonhardt asks the question in the New York Times: Last year, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index jumped 14 percent, while the average hedge fund returned less than 13 percent, after investment fees, according to Hedge Fund Research in … Continue reading
Posted in Investing, Lance's Page
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Sunny Times for Chinese Solar Power?
To get rich is glorious in China nowadays. Scientists are no exception. A top home-grown inventor, 41-year-old Ma Xin, is currently engineering a reverse takeover of a small Singapore-listed investment company, Rowsley, in a deal worth 2.7 billion Singapore dollars … Continue reading
Posted in Environment, Investing, Lance's Page, Technology
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The heir to the throne
I think I am going to be sick. Luckily Tom Maguire chose being clever instead:
Left unreported by the AP – John Edwards built his 28,000 square foot home to learn about homelessness in America, and he got a $400 haircut to learn about the emerging baby-boomer crisis of male pattern baldness.
Posted in Domestic Politics, Investing, Lance's Page
9 Comments
Old news to haunt Hillary?
I can’t tell you what will come of this, or if it should really matter any more, but Carl Bernstein is publishing a book about Hillary that is promised to shed light on a number of controversies and Hillary’s less … Continue reading
Posted in Domestic Politics, Investing, Lance's Page, Media
4 Comments
News Brief, Harrowdown Hill Edition
Cross-posted at The Conjecturer. The Pentagon James Clapper, the UnderSecDef for Intel, wants the TALON database scrapped. This is because it recorded not just legitimate threats to U.S. bases, but information on civilian protests and anti-war marches. In other words, … Continue reading
A BRIC Through Our Window? The Global War for Capital
According to BRIC Consulting, by the year 2040 The BRIC Countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) will have surpassed the combined GDP of the G-6 (US, UK, Italy, France, Germany, Japan) as of the year 2050: The US will of course … Continue reading
The Price of Economic Stability
One of the real points of contention amongst those concerned with economic policy is the increased stability of economic growth and why it has occurred. It is also an area of real concern for investors, for economic stability has some … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
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Trying to smoke out “Big MO”
I may surprise some of you, but I am generally not fan of regulation. … What? No gasps of incredulity? So why? Too many reasons to count, but I’ll suggest this is a good example of one of them. Thus … Continue reading
Posted in Domestic Politics, Economics, Investing, Lance's Page, Law, Libertarianism, Media
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Will We See the Efficient Market Hypothesis at Work?
As the “Scooter” Libby trial draws to a close, speculation abounds as to the final outcome. According to Chicago Boyz (HT: Insty), the Intrade betting market sets the chances of Libby being convicted at around 70% for. Despite wishful thinking … Continue reading
Posted in Domestic Politics, Economics, Investing, Law, MichaelW's Page
1 Comment
Spend More, Tax More (for Democrats business as usual)
Michael said the other day: Even so, it’s getting harder and harder for Democrats to lay any fiscal irresponsibility at the feet of tax cuts, when such cuts are at least partially responsible for the increased revenues, and federal spending … Continue reading
Posted in Domestic Politics, Economics, Investing, Keith's Page
2 Comments
Real Estate and the Dems
This is an interesting take on the new Dem Congress from Real Estate Broker and “The Apprentice 3″ winner, Kendra Todd. I’m hardly an expert on matters of real estate speculation, but I’d like to examine this brief articles contentions … Continue reading
Listening Notes: Capital Keeps Raining On My Head
Yields are low throughout the world, and despite the rising equity markets low yields on equities mean low long run returns on them as well as bonds. So we may actually be facing an end to the decade characterized by … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Humor, Investing, Lance's Page, Music
3 Comments
The Politics of Investments
Slate has pointed me towards information that we have never before had access to on the political class. The Center For Responsible Politics has been crunching the financial disclosure forms of our dear leaders. One interesting aspect to me (go … Continue reading
Posted in Domestic Politics, Economics, Investing, Lance's Page
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A Positively Crazy Idea
Following up on my previous post (“The Bomb Heard ‘Round The World“), in which I proposed no solution, a rather insane idea occurred to me last night that I will now share with you. First Premise: The generous giving of … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Foreign affairs, Investing, MichaelW's Page
1 Comment
What Inquiring Minds Want to Know
Tyler Cowen over at Marginal Revolution had a reader ask him which philosophers he would recommend she should read. The discussion was interesting; I decided a good starting point would be Hayek, Popper, Quine and Hume. I also suggested Plato … Continue reading