The American People and Irresolute Resolutions- Updated

Listening to many members of the House and Senate, especially on the Democratic side, the “American People” overwhelmingly want this travesty of political gamesmanship and avoiding of responsibility in the form of a resolution against the surge passed. My own reasons against that have been stated, and I give them to you again, and it is non-partisan. If you are opposed to the war you should oppose the resolution, if you are in favor of continuing our efforts in Iraq you should oppose these resolutions.

An Open Letter To Our Senators: The difference between opposing and undermining

The Politics of Destructive Ineffectualism

More on Destructive Ineffectualism

What Are We Arguing Over? The Warner-Levin Amendment

It seems in looking at this the American people may have all kinds of negative opinions about the war (though they are not as simple, or as beneficial to their careers as many critics might like to think) the prospects for a positive outcome or even the surge itself. Those views however, for a variety of reasons, have not convinced a significant majority, or even a plurality of Americans, that this resolution is a good idea.

According to the latest CBS poll (pdf.) the view of the President and his plan is far more complex than it is often portrayed. For example:

SHOULD U.S. SEND 20,000 MORE TROOPS TO IRAQ?
——————–| Now |—-| 1/2007 |———–
Favor ———–| 33% |—-| 29% |————-
Oppose ———| 63% |—-| 66%|————–

This is the number that proponents of this measure focus on. However compare that to this number:

NON-BINDING RESOLUTION AGAINST SENDING MORE TROOPS TO IRAQ
——————————————-| All |—| Dems |—| Reps |—| Inds |——
Congress should pass ——-|44%|—| 57% |—| 26% |—| 47% |——
Congress should not pass -|45%|—| 29% |—| 65% |—| 43% |——

Of course the reasons for opposing the resolution do not have to imply support for it or the President, and the numbers in the poll show that. However, imagining it implies that they want the congress to do even more to end this war runs up against this:

HOW LONG SHOULD THE TROOP INCREASE BE GIVEN TO SUCCEED?

Less than three months ——| 13%
Three to six months ———–| 29%
Six months or more ———–| 53%

So most think the president’s plan should be given at least six months to see if it is successful. This and the number above hardly imply overwhelming conviction on the part of the public to pass this resolution. I suspect the reason is that many are opposed to the surge for what might be called hawkish reasons as well as many who feel it is unwise but not strongly so and believe it should be given a chance despite their misgivings.

I also suggest looking at this, which goes to show that opposing the war is hardly a slam dunk winner politically:

IN 2008, WILL YOU ONLY CONSIDER A PRES. CANDIDATE WHO…
(Among Primary voters)
———————————-| All |—| Rep. Primary |—| Dem. Primary |—
Supports the war ——| 9% |————| 20% |————| 2% |——-
Opposes the war ——–| 15% |————| 5% |————| 25% |—–
It depends —————–| 75% |————| 73% |————| 73% |—–

IN YOUR 2008 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE, IRAQ ISSUE WILL BE:
(Among registered voters)
————————————————-| All |—| Reps |—| Dems |—| Indeps |—
Most important issue ————| 14% |—| 12% |—| 16% |—| 13% |—
Important, along
with other issues ——————| 73% |—| 71% |—| 74% |—| 73% |—
Won’t influence vote ————| 13% |—| 17% |—| 10% |—| 12% |—

The main conclusion is that there is not a huge groundswell of support for this measure. So listen to the American public guys, punt or do something which takes real courage one way or the other.

Update: McQ analyzes the political wrangling in the House. It is pretty much mine and fits with what I have been arguing about the politics behind this, and this poll backs it up. Billy Hollis also points out what this poll shows and I argue in The Politics of Destructive Ineffectualism linked above. However Iraq turns out, it doesn’t mean that it bodes well for the anti-war camp down the road. In fact, I think it works out worse if it doesn’t go well.

More: McQ is on a roll, he compares the CBS and USA Today’s polls.
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