Let’s see, the Mahdi Army is in retreat, and the ISF is continuing operations, and sending reinforcements.
Isn’t it OBVIOUS that Maliki is loosing.
Update -
This puts things into perspective…
Mission accomplished has been duly declared, although the JAM in Basra remains apparently intact and raids are still ongoing to seize some of the weapons whose surrender was the accomplishment the mission was aimed at. I’ve given up trying to figure out who won, a conclusion I reached when I found myself nodding along with this theory that Sadr’s actually in cahoots with Maliki to target the “rogue” JAM units who are operating essentially as renegades but under the Mahdi Army banner.
The Mahdi Army is in retreat? When Sadr demonstrated he can snap his fingers and get Maliki to leave the country and call off his men?
Doesn’t sound like retreat to me.
And it doesn’t sound like Maliki is calling off his men…
So there you have it…
Right. My point is that it’s not much of a retreat when his street fighters are celebrating like it’s Christmas.
I think that it’s pretty well established in that culture that you *act* like you got a victory no matter what happens because it is very much all about public honor.
Not private honor. Public honor.
It’s sort of mind-bending to Americans who come from a very different tradition but it’s the same dang reason that a man reclaims his “honor” by killing a woman he failed to protect.
I look at Mark Lynch’s analysis, which sees it as a qualified victory for Sadr (by gaining some concessions for very little political cost) as probably the most tempered. Obviously, calling it a humiliation for Maliki is overwrought, but you can’t deny that the “final solution” to stamp out the militias in Basra has petered out… and that Maliki gambled a significant portion of his legitimacy on his ability to restore order in one fell swoop.
Actually, the farthest I’m willing to concede is that the operations are still ongoing. And that the actual political ramifications wont be known for weeks or months.
The truth is usually somewhere in between.
Some quotes which I agree with…
“everything still depends on what happens next.”
“I’ll stick to my point that it’s going to be a while before the real political winners become clear, whatever the military outcome. In a rapidly shifting environment, it’s risky to declare victory before you see how things shake out.”
The LOST CAUSE I’m talking about is the seemingly bi-polar views of what is happening, and people trying to convince others that their point of view is the only correct point of view. Of course, that is par for the course with any hot topic lately. And, yes, we all do it at times for differing reasons.
But when the situation is changing daily, final judgment ought to be reserved.
I wouldn’t say Maliki has been victorious, but the government is exerting more influence on the streets of Basra then before. They’ve agreed to not perform extra-legal raids, something that is good for Iraq, rule of law and all that. That benefits all of Iraq, not just Sadr.
Let’s see where things are week to week, and then when they have elections. That’s going to be the interesting measure of success.
This puts things into perspective…
Read the whole thing…