The Mildest Recession?

Morgan Stanley expects a “mild and short” recession in 2008, with peak unemployment of 5.6% or 5.7% in early 2009. Mark Perry points out that would make it the mildest and shallowest recession since the second world war.

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2 Responses to “The Mildest Recession?”

  1. on 17 Jan 2008 at 2:18 pm Lance

    I think Richard is probably close to right, though his colleague at Morgan Stanley (my old home) Stephen Roach is more pessimistic. Of course, due to the unknown issues related to financial derivatives and their impact, the chance for a real disaster is rather difficult to quantify.

    my own view is we see a mild recession, but a huge hit to profits and asset prices. Kind of like the last one, where the asset markets and profits were slammed, but jobs and many areas of the economy did pretty good.

  2. on 17 Jan 2008 at 7:44 pm Lee

    Agree on the financial markets…which might imperil reinvestment, let’s face it. With the dollar selling this low we may actually be able to see an export-driven dampening effect on unemployment. That would be a new one. A massive layoff of manufacturing jobs can’t be likely with our cheap exports flying off the shelves in foreign markets. Also how many boomers take retirement if firms start downsizing? Pensioned unemployment makes for stable consumer demand (if not a rise even).

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