A Second Hand Conjecture

Boy, this was an awfully interesting exchange. Democratic strategist Mark Penn, absurdly invited by Brian Goldsmith to argue the press has been soft on Sarah Palin, instead slams the media for counterproductively biased and vindictive coverage:

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(photo: Brian Long)

Dr. Andre Lalonde, executive vice president of the Canadian Society of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, is concerned that Sarah Palin’s decision to have Trig, may lead to a reduction of abortions in Canada through positive example.

This is perhaps demonstrative of how different perspectives on abortion can be in the United States on both sides. It is frankly uncommon to see a senior figure among even the staunchest American defenders of abortion rights, argue that a decrease in their exercise would be undesirable. Indeed, such an opinion is more commonly confined to the most extremist fringes of radical feminism, or within the vile eugenics and zero population growth movements.

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Joe Biden says Hillary Clinton would have been a better pick than himself. A little amusing naturally, but I’m impressed by the candor and humility of it. Fine characteristics for a serving vice president who is expected to exert substantial influence on foreign policy.

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When McCain named Sarah Palin his veep, she had about 500k mentions on the web according to Google, and Joe Biden mustered an impressive five million plus (I checked). A few short days later Palin has surpassed Biden with 5.8 million mentions, with Joe at 5.5 mil. Remarkable.

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John McCain, in an interview with Brian Williams on Sarah Palin:

“The facts are funny things. She’s been in elected office longer than Sen. Obama. She’s been the chief executive of the state that provides 20 percent of America’s energy; she has balanced budgets; she has had executive experience as governor, as mayor, as a city council member and PTA.

So she was in elected office when Sen. Obama was still a local community organizer. He’s never had one day of executive experience.

I think it’s almost ludicrous to compare her experience in elected office and as a leader of one of the most important states in America — certainly one of the largest — to compare her experience with his. It’s no contest.”
(CNS)

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Looking at today’s stats, so far the number one search engine keyword bringing people to ASHC is “obama vs palin.” It’s amusing that people seem to think the Republican vice presidential nominee bears easier comparison and contest with the Democratic presidential nominee. I can only agree with them.

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It has become a serious question to ask if there is any argument in Obama’s perceived interest that Andrew Sullivan will not advance. In the latest project for that question, Sullivan argues that Palin represents the most “irresponsible” pick for the office of Vice President since Dan Quayle, on grounds of her alleged inexperience. It’s left to John Podhoretz to indirectly remind Mr. Sullivan that Quayle’s twelve years in Washington prior to 1988 made him vastly more experienced than Mr. Sullivan’s own choice for president, Barack Obama.

At some point here Sullivan and the other proponents of this line of attack against Palin have to recognize the untenability of their charge, at least as active supporters of Mr. Obama. I’ve no serious objection to anyone rejecting Sarah Palin for her qualifications after all, I can only object when it’s done in the service of a candidate for higher office who possesses even less relevant experience.

It is impossible to believe that Barack Obama’s resume qualifies him as experienced to assume the presidency at the end of this year, whilst Sarah Palin’s resume does not qualify her to serve as vice president at that same moment. Either they are both unqualified, or neither is. Charles Krauthammer for instance quite logically argues that both are unqualified. To argue one over the other, is only to expose yourself as a fantastically obsequious partisan of the saddest sort.

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It’s almost as if the Dems can’t help but to resort to misogynistic antagonism in dealing with Gov. Sarah Palin. This comes courtesy of Alan Colmes, citing Rogers Cadenhead who questions Palin’s maternal abilities:

One bit of weirdness associated with Palin concerns the birth of her youngest child. As the Alaskan media reported, Palin was attending an energy conference in Texas on April 18 when her water broke four weeks before her due date. After this happened, Palin didn’t head to a hospital or even leave the conference, even though the premature rupture of fetal membrances is normally a cause for an immediate examination by an obstetrician, who will observe the fetus on a monitor to guard against infection and other life-threatening complications. Two other reasons for heightened concern were Palin’s age, 43, and the fact that prenatal testing indicated the child had Down syndrome.

Palin stayed at the conference and delivered a 30-minute speech, then boarded a 12-hour Alaska Airlines flight from Dallas to Anchorage, neglecting to tell the airline her water had broken — most airlines won’t fly a woman in labor. The motivation for all of this appears to be the Palins’ desire that the child be born in Alaska. Her husband Todd told the Anchorage Daily News, “You can’t have a fish picker from Texas.”

When she arrived home, Palin was hospitalized immediately and the baby was born prematurely after labor was induced in the middle of the night.

Aside from baby Trig suffering from Down Syndrome, the child was quite healthy at delivery and has been doing fine ever since. It is true that when amino leaks occur, the general advice of doctors is to get to the hospital immediately, but that is not always the case. In fact, when delivery proceeds within 24 hours of an amino leak (a.k.a. water breaking), the risks of any complications to the baby are quite low. Indeed, some women experience minor leakages, as Palin did, well before they are due without any complications whatsoever.

In Palin’s case, she delivered Trig well within the 24 hour window recognized as “safe,” and actually had to be induced because she wasn’t in labor. Moreover, she was in touch with her physician throughout the event, and he did not advise her to act otherwise.

As an aside, the accusation that Trig was born prematurely does not seem to hold water (no pun intended … well, maybe a little) since Palin was past her 36th week, and the definition of “premature birth” is a baby born prior to the 37th week of gestation.

In any case, these are just facts that undermine the credibility of anyone asserting such ridiculous accusations. That Obama supporters are seriously challenging Palin’s credibility and competence as a mother is just stunning on a political level. Not just in the brashness, but also in the sheer stupidity of leveling such charges. I mean, how do idiots like Colmes and Cadenhead think women are going to react to their second-guessing of Palin’s birthing decisions?

I can hear my wife’s retort now: “You try carrying a bowling ball in your belly for 40 weeks, and then shooting it out your pee-hole with the entire hospital staff staring at your nether region. And that’s not even mentioning having to pee every 20 minutes, feeling like a fat cow, persistent fatigue, and constantly worrying about how your caring for unborn child. Plus you have to do your job just as competently and efficiently as you always did before you were pregnant (including dealing with any previously born children), only to be confronted with some a$$wipe having the nerve to tell you ‘You’re doing it wrong’.”

I imagine that a lot of women would feel the same way.

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Here at ASHC we get an enormous amount of traffic from people looking for Sarah Palin photographs. My friend Jason over on postpolitical says he’s experiencing the same phenomenon on his blog, and we took to calling it the hunt for “Palinporn.” Toward that, my favorite keyword from this hidden web image search also comes from Jas: “A MILF we can believe in.”

Of particular interest I’ve found, are those lovely pictures of casual Sarah in the Kuwati desert visiting Alaskan National Guard troops. So here is a gallery of all the pictures we have of that, culled from public-domain government websites, some of which appear to be no-longer publicly accessible.

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The hard sacrifices of the unselected.

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Rasmussen’s first Palin poll suggests that while many Americans still need more information to make a judgment, she’s already made a superior impression to Biden on the day of his selection by Obama.

Of enormous significance is the finding that she receives a 63% favorable rating from independents, and a 61% favorable rating from independent women.

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Paul Begala laments the fact that McCain didn’t select a vice presidential candidate who is more traditional, old, boring, uninspiring…in essence, an ossified agent of the establishment, like Joe Biden for instance.

Well, he doesn’t quite phrase it that way, but it’s the political implication of his complaint. Reviewing his catalog of allegedly superior selections, I feel slightly like shouting out as a teenager: boo-ring. Just as a great many Democratic partisans of Mr. Obama did, when surveying a field of establishmentarian dinosaurs in a year of change.

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Obama moves to distance himself from his own campaign’s harshly antagonistic rhetoric against Palin. Commendable, but probably unwise. Palin represents a direct threat to one of Obama’s core constituencies and thus it would be to his advantage to define her negatively and fast. Even if the ‘inexperience’ attack is hopelessly misguided for obvious reasons.

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It’s rather amusing to see the ticket lacking in any executive experience, with a presidential nominee of extremely limited elected experience, attempting to attack McCain’s vice presidential nominee on grounds of inexperience. Reeling a bit perhaps. A more mature Democratic attack would go after the trooper scandal, the charge of reform hypocrisy and Sarah’s connection to energy company interests. Not that this would prove more successful mind you, but it’s a defter charge that takes account of the Obama campaign’s own manifest weakness in the more important area of the presidential nominee’s inexperience.

It’s also a more traditional process to select a presidential nominee with considerable experience, while taking on a younger apprentice for the vice presidential nominee. Obama, by selecting Biden, is only replicating the George W. Bush and John F. Kennedy departures from this predominant historical pattern. A departure that I think we’ve been arguably ill-served by in both cases.

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Way back in February 2007, when I was still writing for postpolitical, an obscure little blog popped up pitching Sarah Palin for the Vice Presidency. At the time few were that familiar with Sarah’s record or wise enough to predict its national electoral implications. Yet despite the novelty of the idea, I thought then and since that it was an inspired choice. I’ve since journeyed further toward that prescient blog’s recommendation and concluded it was the only choice. Thus it’s fun to finally see Draft Sarah Palin for Vice President reveling justifiably in the moment.

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CNN and Foxnews are reporting. Pretty surprising to me, but a pleasant surprise.

Discussion topic: I am hearing from Obama supporters that she’s a bad pick because she’s inexperienced. Is this an actual argument Obama wants to make? Does this preclude McCain from attacking Obama’s inexpience? Does the fact that Palin has over 100 times more executive expience than Obama help? (100×0=0)

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Ah, the fever of speculation. This is an interesting report from a local paper in Ohio, which found an eyewitness to the alleged Palin plane:

According to Rich Bevis of B&B Aero, the fixed-based operator at Hook Field, the jet, a Gulfstream IV which has the flight range to fly from Alaska to Europe, landed at about 10:15 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 28.

Bevis said the woman “was a real close match to Palin” and added that the flight crew that’s based in the Seattle area was told to fly to Anchorage to pick up their party and fly to Middletown.

Bevis said the jet had a woman, two teenagers and two men on board and that a couple of white vans met the plane, gathered their gear and took the party to an undisclosed location
(OxfordPress)

And yes, Palin has two teenage daughters (Bristol & Willow).

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Thankfully Pawlenty is out, Romney is out, and Matt Drudge is dropping a big tease that it might be Sarah Palin for Vice President after all. I personally would forgive McCain three decades of criticism if he selected her. It would constitute a genuinely visionary decision, for this election and the future of the Republican party. And, it should be said, one very much outside McCain’s normal comfort zone.

CNN is reporting that a plane has left Anchorage for Dayton, Ohio carrying the governor of Alaska. Hmm.

Alaska news is unable to confirm the flight carried the governor however.

ABC News’ Kate McCarthy says Palin is in Wasilla, Alaska. Uh-oh.

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Jason notices that a significant name is missing from the speaking lineup at the Republican convention. The libertarian South Carolina governor and longtime McCain backer would be an unexpected and welcome selection.

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for each party? Well surprisingly enough, the ideal candidates for Obama and McCain are… Colin Powell. This is the result of a survey which was powered by an Affinnova algorithm it calls “evolutionary optimization”.

Powell seems to occupy a special place in bipartisan politics. Respected by the right for his service and involvement in the Iraqi Wars, and liked by the left because of his split with the Bush administration while Secretary of State.

Rounding out the top 5 for the dems were:

former Vice President Al Gore and former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, who tied for second, followed by Senator Hillary Clinton and former Senator John Edwards.

with Gephardt being a bit of a surprise.

While Powell had a large lead in the Dem list, he narrowly took the to GOP slot.

current Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney tied for second. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani came in fifth.

Me? I think Sarah Palin would make a great choice, or maybe Bonnie Garcia.

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After speculating upon Hillary Clinton’s strategic thinking with respect to the Democratic nomination, James Taranto concludes (emphasis added):

To summarize, Mrs. Clinton maximizes her chances of becoming president if she (1) does enough damage to Obama to snatch the nomination away from him, (2) failing that, does enough damage to him to bring about his defeat in November, and (3) gets herself on the ticket, whether he wins in November or not.

Some will say Mrs. Clinton is being disloyal to her party if she undermines Obama’s chances of winning in November. But maybe she just practices a different kind of party loyalty. After all, if you can be a patriot while hoping your country loses a war, why can’t you be a loyal Democrat while hoping your party loses an election?

It is an interesting question.

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Steven Taylor takes a look at Paul Kane’s conclusion that it is now mathematically impossible for either Obama or Clinton to win the nomination with pledged delegates, and notes that a super-delegate decided nominee represents an enormous political problem for the Democrats:

The party that has a legitimate gripe about the 2000 election and the fact that Al Gore won the popular vote cannot find themselves in a situation in which the nominee with less popularly-selected delegates is given the nomination by delegates who were not elected via the primary/caucus process.
(PoliBlog)

Not only is this a problem of political perception and party unity, it could conceivably jeopardize the unification of the two candidates on a single ticket. The candidate perceptions themselves of whether or not they’ve been swindled out of the top slot on the ticket could be significant. Given the nature of this race, it has become almost imperative that the loser is named the vice presidential nominee. But when we are dealing with two candidates who no longer seem particularly fond of each other to begin with, trouble may lie ahead by adding the dimension of a potential backroom convention deal.

Supplementally, Dr. Taylor also adds:

Also, at the end of the day, the DNC may very much come to regret taking the Michigan and Florida delegates out of the pool.
(PoliBlog)

Further evidence that the politics of exclusion always ends up punishing you in democracy.

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Sadly, Mike Huckabee remains in the race in order to distort it. One has to wonder if the increasingly paranoid crypto-theocrat’s gambit to become McCain’s Vice Presidential nominee succeeds, how substantially will it depress mainstream conservative turnout? I’d say pretty significantly, as this is a concord between the liberal + soc-con wings of the party (although there’s now several points of commonality). Even were 66% of the GOP to be very happy about the ticket (that’s stretching their numbers substantially), that would still equal a devastating defeat to an almost certain Clinton/Obama ticket which will naturally command well over 90% approval from invigorated Democrats. You need maximum GOP turnout to have any chance of beating that Democratic ticket and McCain/Huckabee will not get it for you.

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