A Second Hand Conjecture

In the wake of a horrific magazine spread depicting Taliban fighters showing off war trophies looted from the bodies of French soldiers, President Sarkozy has been predictably and commendably resolute. France isn’t going to run away for a change.

Unfortunately and just as predictably, that might not be the majority opinion in France. A recent poll found that 55% of the French public wants to pull out. For his own part, Eric de Lavarene, the journalist who published the pictures, grotesquely defended his actions as morally equivalent to reporting as a NATO embed. A statement as contemptible as arguing that a serial murderer is as entitled to his perspective on his crimes being broadcast, as the detectives pursuing him in the cause of self-evident justice.

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In Oruzgan Province, Afghanistan, the Australian army suffers its worst casualties in a single engagement since the Vietnam war, after a Taliban ambush of an SAS patrol.

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Instapundit
Stop the cash flow to criminal gangs and the Taliban. Help stabilize Mexico.

“Prohibition is a failed luxury that I am not sure we can afford for that much longer.”

An illusion of control.

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An excellent visualization of the increase in attacks in Afghanistan’s individual provinces. Broadly, there’s been about a 50% increase in Taliban attacks from last year. An urgent situation, whatever Geoff Morrell thinks.

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This is the most recent of a series of posts on Registan.net where I explore some of the fundamentals of conflict within the tribal areas of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. At the end of this post is a link to the rest of them.

Nightwatch argues that May was the most violent month in Afghanistan since the 2001 invasion:

NightWatch almost has completed its monthly assessments of combat for both April and May. In the data sample drawn from unclassified reporting sources that NightWatch uses, April featured 199 violent incidents in 86 districts, making it the most lethal April in the six year conflict. May featured 214 incidents of violence in over 100 districts, also a new six-year total for May and the highest single monthly total. Despite official efforts to spotlight improvement, the spring offensive thus far is worse than last year’s spring offensive. The security situation has deteriorated again.

At no prior time has the Taliban managed to stage attacks in over 100 of the 398 districts. The previous highs were 86 in April 2008 and 83 in May 2007. Fighting has been heavy in Garmser District in Helmand Province but it has been significantly higher in Zormat District in Paktia Province; Andar District in Ghazni Province and Asadabad District in Konar, all across from the tribal areas of northern and central Pakistan. If Taliban fighters are heading to Pakistan, they are going back to base to rest and to get more ammunition and supplies.

Now, it is notable that the worst fighting has actually not been in the south, but in Paktya, Ghazni, and Kunar, all of which are provinces operating under the new success metrics breathlessly regurgitated by our lazy propagandists. Kunar in particular was the site of David Kilcullen’s now-seminal piece on the magical IED-stopping power of roads; Asadabad in particular is the site of one of the PRTs making the most talked-about progress in terms of construction and violence reduction.

Are we being sold a bill of goods? Are the areas bordering the FATA in far worse shape than we were lead to believe, and is the South in comparative good health?

It is not as simple to answer as it may seem. There are three metrics to look at: actual numbers, comparative numbers, and perceived numbers. For our purposes—i.e. for the purpose of some sort of permanent defeat of the Taliban and associated militias—the real numbers don’t matter. The comparative numbers might, if there was an effective IO campaign in place—not selling roads as bomb shields, but selling the astonishing success of the brand new national telecommunications network, or the very real benefits of steadily improving developmental indicators. But since there is not, the comparative numbers could be interesting, but haven’t really gone anywhere.

What of the perception? Again, this is a difficult question to unravel: security is rarely at the top of a typical Afghan’s priority. Most want food, or an end to the pervasive and devastating impact of official corruption.

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Published first at Registan.net, this is the culmination of some research I’ve been doing into the nature and history of Pashtun tribal militancy. It draws from a mixture of out-of-print ethnocgraphic and geographic surveys, as well as contemporary news accounts, and tries to make the case that much of the turbulence there is really not unique in an historical sense. As always, comments and discussion is welcome.

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There is a great deal of western unease about the potential cease-fire between some Taliban and tribal militant groups in the NWFP and FATA of Pakistan and the new civilian government. Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of Tehrik-i Taliban and primary suspect in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and sworn enemy of this month’s U.S. friend-of-convenience Maulvi Nazir, has registered interest in a cease-fire in Waziristan.

This is a major step, and indicative of the approach valued by the new civilian government: reconciliation, not confrontation. The usual suspects, namely the U.S., are all a-jitter about the prospect of a peace deal with the militants there. But there really is no reason to feel such deep concern. These sorts of cease fire agreements have a long history in the FATA area, and there really is nothing fundamentally new about the situation. In other words, such deep concern is overblown, and stems more from historical naiveté than anything else.

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A new monthly feature here at A Second Hand Conjecture, is going to be a roundup of what we’ve been reading during the past month. Feel free to discuss, or ask questions about any of the books.

Joshua:

Right now I’m re-reading Taliban by Pakistani reporter Ahmed Rashid. Though racist in parts (his description of all Uzbeks as “notorious thieves” in particular rankles), it is difficult to ignore that in 2000 substantive criticisms of the lack of U.S. strategic vision were actively aiding and abetting the rise of terrorism in the region were largely ignored. That being said, this is the most comprehensive history of the ways many seemingly unrelated threads—from the reckless funding of the mujahideen to the lack of attention paid to the civil war—culminated in the creation of the same men we continue to fight today.

Complete book reviews available here: http://www.conjecturer.com/weblog/?cat=21

ChrisB:

I just finished the graphic novel (grown up way of saying comic book) The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen: The Black Dossier by Alan Moore. It’s the third in a series, Vol 1 and Vol2.

It’s really a great read, especially if you have a familiarity for Victorian era fiction, and even more modern fiction. It follows Mina Murry from Bram Stoker’s Dracula and Allan Quatermain from King Solomon’s Mine and other British adventure books, as they make their way around a post WWII and Big brother England. It’s loaded with characters from popular fiction, such as James Bond, Emma Peel, Prospero, Orlando, Fanny Hill, Lemuel Gulliver, Bulldog Drummond, Professor Moriarty, Mycroft Holmes, and many many more as they are all weaved into a single universe over the course of the first two volumes and this the third of the series.

Keith:

Within the last year, completed the Legacy of the Alldenata series from John Ringo. Good set of books based on the premise of an alien civilization “enlisting” the help of humans in their battle against an unstoppable enemy. Like it most for it’s novel use of technology and the meddling in the back story. Basically in order to fill the ranks, old soldiers are rejuvenated.

# A Hymn before Battle (ISBN 0-671-31941-8)
# Gust Front (ISBN 0-671-31976-0)
# When the Devil Dances (ISBN 0-7434-3540-0)
# Hell’s Faire (ISBN 0-7434-3604-0)
# Watch on the Rhine (with Tom Kratman; ISBN 0-7434-9918-2) SS rejuvenated to save Germany.
# Cally’s War (ISBN 0-7434-8845-8)

Within the last couple of months:

# The Hero (with Michael Z. Williamson; ISBN 0-7434-8827-X) Deals with the mistrust between allies in the above series.

By John Ringo
# Into the Looking Glass (ISBN 0-7434-9880-1) A portal between various universes (or parts of the same universe) and the mayhem that ensues.

And then I picked up a few Michael Z Williamson’s books:

# Freehold (ISBN:0-7434-7179-2) – Really like this book. A fugitive from Earths global government (think of leftist nanny statism gone to its extreme,) finds refuge on the Freehold of Grainne, a very libertarian society. Probably the best representation of how a libertarian society would run. The Earth and the Freehold get into a war, and Earth looses.

# The Weapon (ISBN:1416508945) – Expanding on the same theme, with the POV of a special forces soldier.

And somewhere I picked up a link for Whatever! and have read two books from John Scalzi:

# Old Man’s War (ISBN 0-765-30940-8) – Very well written, and captivating.
# Ghost Brigades (ISBN 0-7653-5406-8) – Continuation of the previous book. Also well written.

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Sunni tribal leaders in Pakistan are organizing militias and some are ready to revolt against Al Qaeda. David Montero at the CSM takes a look at the risks and rewards of applying our successful counterterrorism strategy from Anbar, in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

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