A Second Hand Conjecture

Eric Posner looks back at the predictions of the Surge in Iraq failing, and how ignorant they look today.

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I was catching up a bit on my reading, and thanks to McQ found this interview with Admiral Fallon. As McQ points out, the conversation did not go the way Kyra Phillips was trying to steer it.

Given our own commentary on Fallon here, here, and here, I think several key points that fly in the face of claims about the President and Fallon’s views should be noted:

I don’t believe for a second president bush wants a war with Iran.

Somebody tell the Sock Puppet and Mona. For two straight Autumns I have been told the tanks would roll by November.

I believe the best course is to retain the high confidence we have in General Petraeus and his team out there. Dave has done a magnificent job in leading our people in that country.

Huh? I kept hearing he was disdainful of Petraeus.

The idea we would walk away from Iraq strikes me as not appropriate. We all want to bring our troops home. We want to have the majority of our people back and we want the war ended. Given where we are today, the progress that they’ve made particularly in the last couple months, I think it’s very, very heartening to see what’s really happened here. The right course of action is to continue to work with the Iraqis and let them take over the majority of the tasks for ensuring security for the country and have our people come out on a timetable that’s appropriate with conditions on the ground.

My emphasis. Has anyone here made that same argument? Why, I think it was me, along with Michael, Keith, McQ and a host of others, and Fallon was claimed to be arguing against us in the past. Maybe he was, maybe he wasn’t, but it sure is nice to hear that he agrees now. Note also his endorsement of the idea that there has been real progress, and it isn’t all just a misreading of what is “really going on.”

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Bob Owens tackles the lazy reductionist thinking behind claims that the recent use of air strikes in Iraq shows a worsening situation, or is at odds with the counterinsurgency strategy we should be pursuing.

I especially like this quote from Human Rights Watch, no friends of the administration:

…the air surge has not caused “an appreciable loss of civilian life.”

“It is very deliberate; they are very careful,” Garlasco said. “The way that the Air Force is fighting there now is in lockstep with the hearts and minds strategy on the ground.”

The increase in air strikes is a result of greater cooperation with Iraqi civilians, it is not damaging the attempt to build such  cooperation. They, and our commanders on the ground, see these strikes as a way to avoid casualties, including civilians.

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Romney is walking away with Nevada and has declared victory. American Research Group’s last-minute poll in South Carolina picked up an enormous Thompson surge (to 21%). However the exit polls are saying it’s the McCain and Huckabee show. Byron York writes a fine but sad obituary on the late developing FDT campaign that could have been. The Ron Paul campaign is upset about something in Nevada and demanded a delay in voting, which was refused. Surprisingly, Hillary is winning Nevada (and yet Bill Clinton still needs a sedative). Plus Russ Feingold called, he wants his record back from Edwards.

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