A Second Hand Conjecture

Counterterrorism Blog

For the first time in 25 years there are no clearly identifiable drug kingpins running the cocaine trade from Colombia. The FARC and AUC are both seriously degraded.

Yet, production has not diminished, and, according to Colombian and U.S. officials, the amount of cocaine moving out of the Andean region (Colombia, Peru and Bolivia) has showed almost no variation despite the tactical successes against the organizations.

We have spent billions but we are unable to reduce the flow with our current tactics. The nexus of terrorism and drug money continues to grow. This becomes more than a war on drugs when it is funding our adversaries. The drug war needs to be incorporated into the larger war against terrorist organizations. There is a similar argument for energy independence because we are funding our enemies to buy our energy. Degrading their funding is a significant part of winning this larger war.

Producing our own energy reduces the transfer of funds to the middle east. Legalizing drugs would drastically reduce the profits gained in the black market.

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Bret Stephens of the Wall Street Journal is a frustrating columnist. In April he made the head scratching argument that Khost province in Afghanistan, which has, along with the rest of RC-East, experienced a 36% jump in insurgent attacks over last year, was really on the verge of victory and only John Kerry says otherwise.

Today he writes that FARC, the LTTE, and the Sadr militia are really the same because they were defeated militarily. He of course ignores the very salient fact that neither are alike at all and each required completely different tactics to weaken. The Sadrists have been quelled through concerted American-backed military action in a warzone; the Tamil Tigers were undermined by decades of systematic police and intelligence work before the latest of many military forays to the north of Sri Lanka, most of which had failed (according to some excellent research by RAND scholar C. Christine Fair). And FARC? FARC has been around for 30 years, wholly impervious to our best efforts to undermine it militarily. FARC is weakened now because of political and economic changes. Not the military.

But Stephens feels comfortable spending a week strutting around a few disparate FOBs in Afghanistan, then declaring victory. So I don’t really take what he has to say at face value… or any value at all. But his column is a textbook example of what happens when you really love your hammer—everything looks like a nail.

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McQ alerts us to this developing story in South America.

Colombia, apparently, struck at a narco-terrorist camp inside Ecuador after tracking FARC spokesman Paul Reyes and other leaders there. Reyes and 16 other terrorists were killed.

Chavez reacted by sending troops to the Venezuela/Colombia border:

Now you might ask why Chavez would involve himself in this conflict that essentially had nothing to do with him. Of course he could just be trying to take advantage of a situation to let him attack the rightist and US allied Colombian govt, or he could be trying to protect himself from what the raid would possibly find.

Evidence found in computers seized in a raid over the weekend suggests that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez recently gave the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia $300 million, Colombia’s national police chief said Monday.

Let’s also note Chavez’s past ties with Iran when this part shows up:

Naranjo said other evidence in the computers suggests FARC purchased 50 kilograms of uranium this month.

This could be an interesting story to watch unfold.

UPDATE: More on the story on the Ecuadorians. It seems they were in negotiations with FARC to post friendlier security forces on their border. Also, want to throw a link out there to the US Presidential Election? The files also stated

Americans have reached out to Correa’s government, saying Barack Obama is likely to be the next U.S. president. ”We responded we’re not interested in relationship with governments … and in the case of the United States, we require a public announcement expressing interest in talking with the FARC, given their eternal war against us,” the memo said.

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John Lilyea has the goods:

So I decided to add my voice to the millions worldwide from here in DC.

I was really surprised that an ad hoc organization put together such a large demonstration in such a short period of time.

More at Gateway Pundit.

UPDATE: Commenter logtar supplies a link to pictures of anti-FARC rallies from around the world. Protest babes abound (albeit some not exactly, um, real.)

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If Hugo inspires such love from the masses of South America, how do you explain this?

Colombia’s Uribe Approval Rating at Record 80%, Tiempo Reports

By Helen Murphy

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) — Colombian President Alvaro Uribe’s approval rating rose to a record 80 percent in January from 74 percent in November, El Tiempo newspaper reported, citing a Gallup Colombia poll.

Uribe’s approval rating may have increased as Colombians rallied behind him amid verbal attacks from Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez and over his management of the release of two hostages by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, El Tiempo reported Gallup director Jorge Londoño as saying.

Gallup Colombia interviewed 1,000 citizens in Colombia’s four main cities between Jan. 17 and Jan. 19. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points in Bogota, the daily newspaper said.

Feathers is certainly cheered. Meanwhile, Chavez’s ratings are heading toward George Bush’s.

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Following through on what was reported yesterday, Hugo Chavez continues to step up the pressure on food producers:

Venezuela’s top food company has accused troops of illegally seizing more than 500 tonnes of food from its trucks as part of President Hugo Chavez’s campaign to stem shortages.

The leftist Chavez this week created a state food distributor and loosened some price controls, seeking to end months of shortages for staples like milk and eggs that have caused long lines and upset his supporters in the OPEC nation.

McQ chimes in.

More News from Venezuela pasted from Fausta’s Carnival Of Latin America and the Carribean (I suggest reading each week) follows:

The Dangerously High Price of Crossing Hugo Chavez

Judge Monica Fernandez, a Venezuelan human rights advocate, was shot on January 4 in what police ruled a botched car robbery. The night before the attack, she was branded an enemy of the state, a coup-plotter, and a fascist on a state television show which condemns those who dare to oppose the government’s actions. Coincidence? Thor Halvorssen doesn’t think so.

Via Siggy,
Venezuela’s Jews Find Their Voice as Chavez Ramps Up Harassment

Chavez to farmers: Sell within Venezuela or it’s ‘treason’; Chavez threatens to send in the army to seize farms at gunpoint unless farmers sell all their milk to the government. Udder stupidity. As Ed says,

Chavez has chosen the Mugabe way of state confiscation of farms, and will eventually get the Mugabe result — taking his nation into poverty and starvation on land that should produce enough for export.

Via Irish Spy
Exit Venezuela?

Chavez and the FARC-The Unveiling

Is Chavez seeking war with Colombia?

U.S. media treats Chavez better than he accords his opponents and Lucianne discussion thread

Chavez and the FARC

A Hollywood Yarn Unravels

Venezuelan government continues attack on independent media; Alberto Federico Ravell is “Caracas Nine” dissident #3

An article from last month I didn’t link to Election deception

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Venezuelans not fond of Hugo Chavez’s new found affinity for narcoterrorism, are planning street marches in Caracas and Maracaibo to explicitly reject FARC and their murderous barbarism. This is an enormously heartening sign of genuinely worthwhile international solidarity, unlike the vile and dictatorial version Hugo likes to promote. Details in English from Kate at A Colombo-Americana’s Perspective.

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JammieWearingFool hilariously points out that Hugo Chavez’s recent appeal to the world to refer to the FARC as “insurgents,” rather than terrorists, is off to a smashing start. It only took Reuters four paragraphs into the story before they began to comply.

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