A Second Hand Conjecture

Delighted with the American election result for whatever reason, Kurdish villagers in Cavustepe, Turkey have sacrificed 44 sheep to honor Barack Obama. They also smeared the blood of the offering on Obama campaign posters, purportedly for good luck. Now there’s a weekend project for the press corps.

On a similar note, here’s another reminder that conservatives desperately need a new commentariat in addition to new leadership in the congress. Krauthammer sees Obama as the next Reagan striding across the globe, and Mary Katharine Ham reminds us of David Brooks in October, confessing to being warm quivering goo in the hands of the giant. One should always demand more than surrogacy from the opposition. One might even insist on opposition.

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Way back in February 2007, when I was still writing for postpolitical, an obscure little blog popped up pitching Sarah Palin for the Vice Presidency. At the time few were that familiar with Sarah’s record or wise enough to predict its national electoral implications. Yet despite the novelty of the idea, I thought then and since that it was an inspired choice. I’ve since journeyed further toward that prescient blog’s recommendation and concluded it was the only choice. Thus it’s fun to finally see Draft Sarah Palin for Vice President reveling justifiably in the moment.

(more…)

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Indian women may soon face imprisonment for wearing their traditional saris in Nigeria. The mid-riff exposing garments have run afoul of Muslim conservatives as being too sexually provocative. There are estimated to be about 25,000 Indians living in Nigeria, primarily employed in the oil sector. A strange experience for them. India typically regards itself as a sexually conservative culture, despite Western literary opinion to the contrary.

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Well, Mr. Obama has finally quit that ludicrous Chicago institution known as Trinity United Church of Christ. His membership had survived Rev. Wright, but was ultimately done in over the visiting Rev. Michael Pfleger’s bizarre self-hating white guilt trip, and radicalized political rally in sacred masquerade.

Having seen the deranged, obscenely ideological sermons of Wright and then Pfleger, it may be that conservatives are experiencing for the first time in national politics what the left has endured for decades: the insufferable and corrosive experience of seeing clergy involved in brutish political editorializing from the pulpit, done allegedly under the sanction of God, for and toward His rather famously unpredictable purposes.

Perhaps there might then be a collective recognition in this country that aggressively involving the church in politics isn’t such a swell idea. Perhaps even a deeper understanding that God –who by His nature rules only through decree– might not be such a logical source for consultation in a democracy, which rules through consent of the governed.

Too much to hope for, I know. But one can dream of a better day. Even in an era where the preacher pirates in the Evangelical social conservative movement hold a cutlass at the Republican party’s throat every election. And thereby a patently preposterous, explicitly theocratic ignoramus like Mike Huckabee, can experience significant support within that party for its vice presidential nomination.

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Most people believe that liberals and Democrats are more sympathetic to gay interests than conservatives and Republicans. Count me among those who think this is accurate.

But, not all is what it seems on the surface.

Some Republicans - some very high up - can and have expressed support for those in the gay community.

Allow the Gay Patriot to explain.

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The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected.

-GK Chesterton

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McCain should be up any minute now…

3:07PM Special Guest Sen. George Allen from VA is up now.

- I’m a commonsense, Jeffersonian conservative.
- Preeminent role of President is Commander in Chief. And John McCain would be the best of the remaining candidates in that role.
- tenacious in stopping wasteful spending
- good fiscal conservative
- Conservatives are essential teammates
- John McCain is a leader

3:14PM Sen Tom Cobourn is introducing John McCain

- John McCain wont tell us one thing and do another
- Character, guts, determination and experience
- Said about surge “I’d rather loose the Presidency, then loose the war.”
- Courage matters most in Washington
- Disregard for his own personal political fortunes
- 1 of 11 Republicans who opposed “Bridge to Nowhere”
- voted against the Rx Drug program
- has the most conservative health plan of the candidates
- look at the Judges he’s voted for to see who he’d nominate
- pro-life for 24 years
- national security - most qualified candidate

3:23PM John McCain enters…

-Applause, maybe some booing.
-Pardon my absence from last year, trying to “not be seen as the front-runner for the GOP nomination.”
-Agrees with Romney on uniting party
-Campaign will be based on conservative principles
-Can’t succeed without help of dedicated conservatives
-Has strongly defended issues he shares with conservatives, as much as the issues he differs on
-Role of govt is to protect citizens liberty and property
-First CPAC attendance was at the invitation of Ronald Reagan
-Has not forgotten his political heritage
-Record as a whole is of a “mainstream conservative.”
-Look at his record for evidence
-Voted against “assault weapons ban”
-Position on immigration issue (boos on that one)
-Pledge to SECURE OUR BORDERS FIRST
-Then will address other aspects, must respect rule of law and not kick off another wave of illegal immigration
-Wont make promises he doesn’t intend to keep
-The choice will between him, and a Democrat who may take us back, to a Democrat weak on defense, and who’ll weaken us
-Will make sure that OUR principles will prevail over THEIRS (democrats)
-Will not sign a bill with ANY earmarks in it
-Will hold the line on expansion of entitlement programs, and will work to reform those programs
-Will make Bush tax cuts permanent
-Will cut corporate tax rates to keep industry in country
-Will repeal AMT (I think that’s what he said)
-Will deal with health care with free market principles
-Will nominate judges who’ve proven our trust
-Intend to win the war in Iraq
-Only candidate who appreciates the cost of war, but also knows what would happen if we withdrew, and wont let that happen.
-Will not permit Iran the weapons to advance their malevolent ambitions
-Will stay on offense against Islamic terrorism and marshal all of the government to that end
-Wants to keep America Safe, Proud, Prosperous and Free
-Will probably continue to have disagreements, but will consult with conservative leaders
-Even though a maverick, his true calling has been serving this country
-Asking for the support of conservatives

3:50PM McCain exits… Much applause. No booing apparent.

Overall a very good and persuasive speech. If he exhibits this during the general election, he has a good chance of winning.

Link to the full text of his remarks.

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Is the Iraq War hurting John McCain’s candidacy? By “hurting” I’m referring to his struggle to be the true conservative candidate who unites the party. Despite his clear lead in the primary race, McCain has not been able to capture the Christian right (who predominantly go for Huckabee), nor has he been able to win many races without the help of independent voters (strict conservatives breaking mostly for Romney). Indeed, Republicans don’t even seem terribly motivated this election season, as nearly double the number of Democratic voters went to the polls on Super Tuesday compared to Republicans (14.7 million vs. just 8.9 million). Meanwhile, the conservative and libertarian intelligensia (as well as yours truly) have been sniping at McCain from the right, including right-wing diva Ann Coulter who declared that she’ll vote for Hillary (yes, Hillary!) over John McCain. So, what’s going on here when even the hated Hillary Clinton can’t seem to force a consensus amongst the Republican Party to vote for the Maverick?

Amidst the internecine fighting on the right over the McCain “inevitability” train, something has been forgotten: there’s a discernible, even palpable, glimmer of hope on the Iraqi horizon. If Republican voters were as concerned about the Iraq War now as they were in 2004, then McCain would be winning hands down at this point. Since the only positive reason anyone can put forth to vote for McCain is his stance on the war in Iraq [Ed. -- OK, there's this too], it stands to reason that any diminution in the war’s importance as an election issue correlates to a decrease in support for McCain’s candidacy.

In other words, as Republican voters become less concerned about how the war will turn out, they place more importance on other issues — e.g. the economy, abortion, earmarks, values, etc. Because McCain is not perceived as being reliably conservative on all these other issues, he faces greater scrutiny from opinion-makers seeking to advance the small-government, conservative (or libertarian) agenda, and Republicans in general feel free to focus on issues that are closer to home for them personally. Much like Peg suggested as the reason for Rudy’s campaign fizzling out, McCain’s lackluster support amongst the Party base seems to be greatly affected by the decreased urgency and anxiety of the Iraq War, and worries about terrorism in general.

Taking this hypothesis to its logical conclusion, is it possible that Bush’s successes with respect to the GWOT, including the relative post-surge calm in Iraq, will be the undoing of a Republican presidency? Are we on the verge of the Republican Party faithful, who are not only “not in love” with McCain, but also threatening not to “fall in line”, blaming Bush for the loss of the White House? These are strange political times indeed.

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Byron York has a fairly instructive anecdote from South Carolina on Fred Thompson:

Last night I talked with Cyndi Mosteller, a strong social conservative who headed the Charleston County Republican Party from 2003 to 2007 and who supports McCain. When I asked about Thompson, she said. “He was the most anticipated candidate that I have ever seen. So many people on the ground were ready to run the ball for him, and they showed up in strength, but he didn’t really show up in strength. I think that probably Thompson is more of a private person. I don’t really think he’s cut out for the public run required of public office. I think it’s almost a personality thing; it’s certainly not an ideological thing. It’s like the public energy and the will to run are a little bit lacking there.” Talk to other South Carolina conservatives, no matter who they supported, and you’ll hear similar opinions. Thompson had a huge opportunity here.
(National Review)

The candidate everyone wanted to support, but no one did.

The most troubling thing about the Thompson personality problem is that it would arguably make for a splendid chief executive. We haven’t seen a presidential candidate who is this constitutionally predisposed against the sordid business of retail politics since Dwight Eisenhower. Of course we also haven’t seen someone with as substantial a resume as Ike’s since either. Perhaps our political culture has changed. Or more likely, to have a Thompson or Eisenhower personality on the trail, it helps to have toppled the Nazi Empire.

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The Huckabee campaign staff is bitter and suspicious (as usual). They’re blaming Fred Thompson’s 16% showing in South Carolina for ruining their efforts to flood the vote with a social-conservative surge.

The surge was nevertheless impressive when it came, in both its quantity and in its fantastically unrepresentative uniformity. Fully 83 percent of Huckabee’s voters were evangelicals and that was good for 128,000+ votes. But what was most impressive is that despite this, he didn’t win an absolute majority of the evangelical vote. Instead 27% voted McCain. The worst thing that happened to the Huckabee campaign was not Fred Thompson, but the fact that so many social conservatives had apparently come to their senses.

It now looks like the promised clerical takeover of the GOP has foundered for good. Huckabee’s message of social justice married with religious extremism will find even less of a perch among the libertarian political attitudes that dominate Florida opinion. And if Thompson does indeed plan to continue in his campaign in Florida, that would completely seal the fate of Huckabee ahead of Super Tuesday, a contest the good pastor has neither the resources nor the broader market appeal to succeed in if he’s anything short of the frontrunner.

Now if we can just prevent that Huckabee for Veep nod somehow.

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