Tag Archive 'primaries'

Time For A Cool Change

Although I’m leery anytime Congress says it’s going to “fix” something, something really does need to be changed in the primary system. That the race is all but decided by the time some states primaries, makes those voters with later primaries, much less important in the process.

http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.html

With Super Tuesday now behind us, there’s a movement afoot to reform the presidential primary system, and it is coming from the states themselves.

The nation’s secretaries of state want Congress to turn its attention to a bill that would replace the current primary system with one centered on four revolving regional primaries.

But once voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have their say, the plan divides the country into four geographic regions, with primaries to start in March.

“Each of those regions has a primary – a Super Tuesday, if you will – but it will be a regional Super Tuesday, and we stretch it out over the next four months,” he said.

Lots will be drawn, and whatever region goes first – East, West, North or South – would go last the next presidential year and work its way up towards the top, so that over a 16-year cycle, each region will get a chance to go first, last, and be in the middle, Grayson said.

I would go even further than this, with randomly selected states from each quintile of state size. This would be on a rotating basis per year, with the order redetermined each census.

There are some potential problems with the method the SOS’s are backing.

“Because it would be a rotating regional primary, the particular beneficiaries from different wings of political parties would vary from one election to the next – and it would probably give rise to more gamesmanship in terms of particular candidates timing their attempts to seek the presidential nomination,” Conlan concluded.

Conservative candidates, for instance, would likely have to wait until it was the South’s or West’s turn before launching their candidacies.

I don’t know what the answer is, but a change would be welcome.

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Intervention Needed

I’m disappointed with the emerging results in the GOP primaries too (the Nightmare Ticket is near), but I’m actually starting to worry about Mr. Hewitt: “McCain can’t be considered a frontrunner by any conventional standard.” Except in polls, wins, and delegates of course.

H/T: Cadillac Tight

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Still Anyone’s Game

McCain may be the front runner, but it is still anyone’s game going into next Tuesday. And the race can be just as muddled after next Tuesday, if there’s not a clear front runner.

And yes, it’s my contention that at this time, there isn’t a clear front runner. Just look at the numbers:

McCain – 93
Romney – 59
Huckabee – 40

I know some will look at that and think McCain has a tremendous lead on Romney. Except that the goal is 1191 delegates to get the Republican nomination. So, as a percentage of goal the candidates are currently at:

McCain – 7.8%
Romney – 5.0%
Huckabee – 3.4%

Now, between Super Tuesday puts 1102 delegates in play (including 21 for Maine this Friday.) I doubt that any candidate is going to sweep 22 states.

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Hatred on the Homefront for McCain

The Maricopa County Republicans (McCain’s home county) held a meeting and had a straw poll on the primaries. McCain was voted “Most Unacceptable,” ahead of even Ron Paul. Fred Thompson won the “Most Acceptable” vote, but then lost to Romney on the nomination vote. Fred continues to be the candidate everyone agrees with, but no one will vote for. So strange.

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Notes from the Vote

Romney is walking away with Nevada and has declared victory. American Research Group’s last-minute poll in South Carolina picked up an enormous Thompson surge (to 21%). However the exit polls are saying it’s the McCain and Huckabee show. Byron York writes a fine but sad obituary on the late developing FDT campaign that could have been. The Ron Paul campaign is upset about something in Nevada and demanded a delay in voting, which was refused. Surprisingly, Hillary is winning Nevada (and yet Bill Clinton still needs a sedative). Plus Russ Feingold called, he wants his record back from Edwards.

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Liberation Theology Takes a Hit

Mike Huckabee

Here’s some splendid news for those of us not delighted by the prospect of a liberation theologist takeover of the Republican Party. Rasmussen is reporting their new South Carolina numbers and Mike Huckabee has lost five points and Fred Thompson gained four since last week. Thompson now stands at 16%, Huckabee at 19%, with McCain reaping the rewards at 28%.

If Huckabee can be stopped in South Carolina, it’s quite probable that will be the end of him. Until of course John McCain’s advisers convince him to name Huckabee as his Vice Presidential nominee in order to appease the soc-con voting bloc (traditionally his strongest adversaries within the party).

Indeed, my friend Jason over at postpolitical (who is an ardent Huckabee supporter) is holding out hope for McCain to win the nomination if Huckabee fails, for precisely this eventuality. Even the slimmest chance of getting Huckabee anywhere near the levers of power is apparently enormously important to his supporters. But is it as important to his opponents to prevent that? It should be.

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