Tag Archive 'New Hampshire'

Bob Barr Doing Well in Polls

ChrisB on Jul 09 2008 | Filed under: Chris' Page, Election 2008, Libertarianism

Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr is doing very well in the latest Zogby poll Eric Dondero at Libertarian Republican informs us. The poll has Barr at 6% in Texas and Florida and a pretty impressive 10% in New Hampshire.

State: Texas

Summary:
McCain – 42%
Obama – 39%
Barr – 6%
Nader -2%
Someone else – 4%
Undecided – 7%

Over 3,200 were surveyed in the poll, from June 11 – June 30.

Of course this also means Obama is only 3% back of McCain in Texas. So this poll may be an outlier, but hopefully future polls will continue to show the Libertarian candidate getting an historic amount of votes. The goal being to shift the Republicans to the libertarian side of the party.

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Swinging Liberals and Reagan Resentment

Lee on Jan 21 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Politics, Election 2008, Lee's Page

Hillary Clinton
(photo: Marc Nozell)

Matt Stoller at OpenLeft has a pretty interesting observation about the swing of the self-described “very liberal” constituency from Obama to Hillary over the course of the primaries:

In Iowa, Obama beat Clinton by 16 points among those who consider themselves as ‘very liberal’. In New Hampshire, they were even. And now in Nevada, Clinton simply destroyed Obama within that block by 16 points. In other words, while it’s not entirely clear who ‘won’ Nevada, whatever that means, had Obama run even with Clinton among those who describe themselves as ‘very liberal’, he would have soundly defeated her at the caucuses outright instead of having to play delegate games.
(OpenLeft via Corrente)

Matt goes on to make the argument that Obama’s recent praise of the Reagan legacy was the catalyst for Obama’s defeat. Overall Matt’s grinding old ideological axes a bit too hard here, given that this would clearly fail to answer how the trend he identified managed to precede Obama’s remarks on Reagan. But he is onto something at the margins. It would be interesting if Obama was losing the “very liberals” as Matt notes, among the aging and still resentful leftists who were adults during the Reagan era.

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Retreat to the Fringe

Lee on Jan 21 2008 | Filed under: Domestic Politics, Election 2008, Lee's Page

Huckabee

 Social conservatives and particularly crypto-socialist social conservatives (or “populists” if you prefer), are inevitably going to be a minority faction within the GOP. But to their great credit they themselves recognize this. The implications of that self-awareness are dire for Huckabee however.

Because their interests and perspectives are in many ways peculiar to themselves within the party, historically they’ve always been sensitive to their permanent political vulnerability. Thereby there is a tendency among social conservative voters to desert their insurgent leaders at the first sign of weaknesses (ala Pat Robertson, 1988). Weaknesses which could conceivably imperil their leveraged influence with the eventual broader party nominee and his regime.

As Mick Stockinger at Uncorrelated points out, these odd men out have smelled weakness on Huckabee and must soon begin their desertion from him to the establishment, in order to preserve influence. That’s because what the social conservatives are staring at now, is the prospect of being rendered completely irrelevant for the first time since perhaps 1976. Having supported the overthrow of the prevailing order in the Republican party by an extremist champion with a radical and unpopular agenda, only to watch him fail to seize control of the party, the coup plotters will soon be looking for ways to make themselves indispensable again.

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