Tag Archive 'motorcycles'

Luck, Good Karma, and Preparing for the Worst

I had a lesson in all three this past Friday (8/29.) As I was riding my brand new Triumph Bonneville (with 2 weeks & 650 miles on it,) to work, not more then 2 miles from my house I had a collision with a raccoon. The short story is that the bike and I are in about the same shape, a few dings, and some scrapes, but salvageable. Currently the bike is at the dealer, waiting for inspection by the insurance agent. The rider is at work, and other then a little pain from his knees, is doing fine.

Read the whole story, and view the gory details below the fold.

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My Summer Vacation

It was a busy weekend here at the homestead. Although it wasn’t actually at the homestead, we traveled to beautiful , to take in the AMA Vintage Motorcycle Days event. Other than being hot, and humid, we had a great couple of days dodging golf carts and scooters, while ogling over the most motorcycles I’ve ever seen in one place.

This was also perhaps the largest vehicular event I’ve ever been to. Estimates are that there were 1000 swap meet vendors over 35 acres, 10’s of thousands of spectators, and I don’t know how many racers. I didn’t know who owned it at the time, but Jay Leno’s Y2K jet bike made a few laps around the track. That was a bit freaky, and thrilling, as a m/c passed by, and then you heard the whine of a turbine. Spent most of the time, taking pictures and wishing we had brought more money and a trailer.

Keith Taking Pictures

Keith Taking Pictures

There was also the added bonus of having Triumph motorcycles be the marque for the event. I’m currently in the market for a new motorcycle, because I like to ride, and the 2 m/c’s I have are in disrepair, I work on them more then I ride them. So, my wife graciously agreed last month that I could get a new m/c once our credit cards are paid off, which will be happening in the next month. Triumph is one of the few m/c’s that I’m interested in. I like the upright position of riding, and the classic look is unbeatable. Plus, it’s tame enough for a beginning rider, I’ve only been riding for 3 years now, and only have a thousand or so miles under me.

Taking a test ride of the Triumph Scrambler

Taking a test ride of the Triumph Scrambler

The test ride was good, I haven’t been able to ride since last spring, between selling our old house, moving into our new one, and trying to repair various cars and motorcycles. I did take a wrong turn, but I quickly realized my error and the tail gunner escort stopped to lead us back to the track. The Scrambler fit me well, and the power, handling and brakes were light years better then the 2 bikes I own. I’m now torn between the Scrambler and the Bonneville.

Yet another added bonus was being able to briefly meet Craig Vetter. If you are into motorcycles, you probably know him, or his products. He produced a line of fairings for motorcycles called the Windjammer. He was there with his new project, the Last Vetter Fairing, which is a full streamlined body for a Helix scooter. He’s aiming to get 100MPG at regular highway speeds, while able to fit 4 grocery bags into it. The thing is remarkable, especially when you realize the skin is made out of plastic notebook cover material, and only has around 18 HP. He is an inspiration to anyone investigating streamlining motorcycles. I’ve incorporated many of his ideas into sketches of things I’ve yet to build.

Craig Vetter w/ Streamlined Scooter

Craig Vetter w/ Streamlined Scooter

That’s Craig Vetter behind his scooter with the denim shirt and shades. He was happily talking about his efforts and hoped more people would get interested in his type of backyard innovation.

He also ran a contest in the early 80’s to see what kind of MPG people could get out of a motorcycle. 470 MPG was the record. Now these were purpose built machines, and the riders were crouched down to lower their wind resistance. His current project is all about practicality. Something a person could take to the store, or drive across country.

Most memorable food of the trip was having dinner at . Great food, but the decor and music were a flashback to the 80’s. If you’re in the area, I’d recommend it.

On the way home, we stopped off to pickup some parts to put disc brakes on my 61 Falcon. Met the guy off a Ford Falcon website, and he happened to have the parts sitting in his garage. So, I have another new project, which I’ll probably wait for the winter to start, to add to my long list of things I do in my increasingly rare spare time. At least I didn’t have to search the boneyards myself.

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The Harley Report

As I noted earlier, Dale Franks was curious about how Harley Davidson (HOG) would do on its latest earnings release:

One earnings report to watch this week, though, is Harley-Davidson (HOG). It’s a solid company with a loyal customer base—I’m one of them actually—but, motorcycles are a luxury item. For every guy like me that rides practically every day, and uses a motorcycle as their primary transportation—there are about 10 guys that ride for maybe 2,000 miles a year. Or less. Those people are gonna stop riding—and buying—new motorcycles.

In fact, if the rumors are true, they already have, and Harley’s results for last quarter will be below analysts estimates. In the last year, Harley sold substantially fewer motorcycles than in 2006. Also, Harley’s stock has already lost about half of it’s value in the last year already, and disappointing earnings for last quarter won’t help.

The thing is, Harley is an interesting proxy for luxury buying. If Harley’s sales are looking bad on the 24th, when earnings are announced, that’s a pretty good indicator that consumers are shutting off buying non-essentials, a good indication of belt-tightening, and general economic cooling.

So what happened?

Revenue for the quarter was $1.39 billion compared to $1.50 billion in the year-ago quarter, a 7.7 percent decline. Net income for the quarter was $186.1 million compared to $252.4 million, down 26.3 percent versus the fourth quarter of 2006. Fourth quarter diluted earnings per share were $0.78, a 19.6 percent decrease compared to $0.97 in the fourth quarter of last year.

[...]

“Harley-Davidson managed through a weak U.S. economy during 2007,” said Jim Ziemer, Chief Executive Officer of Harley-Davidson, Inc. “As we announced in September, we reduced our wholesale motorcycle shipment plan for the fourth quarter, fulfilling our commitment to our dealers to ship fewer Harley-Davidson motorcycles than we expected our dealers worldwide to sell at retail during 2007,” said Ziemer.

[...]

Revenue from Harley-Davidson motorcycles was $1.12 billion, a decrease of $105.5 million or 8.6 percent versus the same period last year. Shipments of Harley-Davidson motorcycles totaled 81,206 units, a decrease of 11,642 units or 12.5 percent compared to last year’s fourth quarter.

[...]

U.S. retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 14.2 percent for the quarter. The heavyweight motorcycle market in the U.S. decreased 9.0 percent for the same period.

[...]

For the full year of 2007, worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 1.8 percent compared to the prior year. In the U.S., Harley-Davidson dealer retail sales decreased 6.2 percent for the full year; international retail sales increased by 13.7 percent. The U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market was down 5.0 percent for the full year of 2007.

To recap, miserable in the US, but offset to some degree by strong sales overseas. I think that meets Dale’s requirement for a bearish signal for the US economy. That was also at the low end of estimates. Yeah, it is getting whacked.

HOG

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