Goodbye Rudy Tuesday?
peter on Jan 27 2008 at 12:25 am | Filed under: Domestic Politics, Election 2008, Peter's Page
Cross-posted at my widdle Wiberal Capitawist Pawty bwog.
Sorry about the title, really. But it’s all up to the crackers now. Fred Thompson has left the building, leaving Rudy Giuliani the only candidate in the Republican race potentially capable of prevailing in November against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama—or both. But Rudy may well have made a strategic error: having been the polling frontrunner for almost a year, Giuliani and his captains decided to forgo the smaller early state contests and focus on high-delegate states, beginning with Florida on January 29th. Giuliani’s people have been bivouacked there for months. The effort has kept the candidate with a double-digit lead in the Sunshine State—until now.
Enter Duverger’s law, which states that district-based plurality elections favor a two party system due to voter polarization between the frontrunner and the strongest challenger. In the contests he skipped, Rudy finished most often in fourth or fifth place, with single-digit percentages. With John McCain and Mitt Romney now being perceived as the the top two candidates, Giuliani’s poll numbers have been plummeting in Florida, California, New Jersey, and even New York, the very delegate-rich states that he was counting on to elevate him to the nomination. In Florida, the latest polls now have Rudy in a three way tie for first place at best and losing to both McCain and Romney at worst.
But what makes it impossible to write Rudy off yet is the following: historically up to a third of Florida voters have taken advantage of the state’s liberal absentee/early voting rules to cast their ballots prior to actual elections. Giuliani’s team knew this going in, and assembled early voting and absentee voter “chase” teams that have been operating since before Iowa urging Rudy supporters to vote early. No other candidate has done this. With this being a four-way race, it’s possible Rudy can absolutely stink on Tuesday yet still win due to early/absentee ballots cast for him back when he was fab.
What’s more, given that the media has all but ruled it out, a Rudy win in Florida would turn the press upside down, making McCain’s comeback in New Hampshire appear small and uninspired by comparison. The very trend that makes the chances of a Giuliani nomination currently appear hopeless contain the same forces required to make his big-state strategy work by making him the lead story one week before Super Tuesday. Duverger can giveth as well as taketh away.
Sphere: Related Content4 Responses to “Goodbye Rudy Tuesday?”
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when would we know this? Are the absentee ballots already counted and will be added to the vote totals the day of the primary?
Trying to give Peg some hope?
As a realist, I fear that Rudy is toast. At the moment, it surely seems he made monumental errors in strategy.
But - as someone who will be unhappy with the policies of a President Obama, and someone who will be despairing at the policies and the character (character; what character?!?) of a President H.R. Clinton - I do hope that Rudy still has a chance.
It was my opinion and continues to be my belief that Rudy has the best chance of any Republican to win in a general election. So - when people express themselves in a primary or a caucus, they should think not only about who is their favorite Republican candidate. They should think about whether they want President Obama, President Clinton - or President Rudy. This may really be the ultimate choice.
I’m with Peg. McCain vs. Clinton? McCain has a chance, mostly due to Clinton’s negatives, unless Obama is at the bottom of the ticket. Versus Obama it’s 1996 all over again. Romney vs. Clinton or Obama? No chance whatsoever.
Rudy is a drug warrior, but other than that he was and is the most liberal capitalist candidate in the race. Until recently he consistently out-polled both Clinton and Obama, and if Rudy added Fred Thompson as VP, even a Clinton/Obama ticket would be dead meat. Giuliani has also consistently polled as the most likable candidate on either side. That’s every bit as important as anything else in general elections.
Chris, I’m pretty sure early/absentee votes are counted with election day votes. Early voting in Florida started two weeks ago and ends today. Absentee ballots can be presented as late as 7pm on election day.
yours/
peter.