Penetrating Iran
Keith_Indy on Mar 20 2007 at 3:47 pm | Filed under: Foreign affairs, Keith's Page
As a follow up to my post, “Internal Struggle in Iran on the Horizon,” I’d suggest reading this article by Michael Young on the recent defections of military officials from Iran.
Sphere: Related ContentIf the U.S. played a role in Asgari’s defection, it will boost morale in Washington after the intelligence debacle in Iraq. The episode shows that there are cracks in the Iranian system, and that these can be exploited by the plethora of intelligence agencies today cooperating against Iran’s expanding influence in the Middle East. At a time when there are unconfirmed reports that the U.S. is involved in clandestine activities in Iran–particularly among the Sunni or Kurdish populations–this kind of breakthrough surely reinforces the value of human intelligence and the advantages of more traditional methods of spycraft.
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It may be too soon to judge how big an information coup Asgari’s escape will turn into, but it’s already a massive political one. The moral of the story is that if the U.S. wants to deal with Iran successfully, it has to do so as much in the darker recesses of state interaction than from the top of aircraft carriers. The Iranians have always been remarkable builders of institutions. If you’re going to erode their self-confidence, those institutions have to appear vulnerable. Whatever Asgari divulges, the real impact of his disappearance is that Iran can be penetrated.
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