A Second Hand Conjecture

Could a liberal lesbian rights activist actually win South Carolina’s 1st congressional district? Sure looks possible, as Linda Ketner has closed to within 5 in her aggressive challenge to incumbent Rep. Henry Brown. Of interest, Ketner is also a member of  “the Cabinet” which Time just published an interesting piece on. It’s an informal group of gay tech and hereditary millionaires, who have been investing large sums toward a systematic defeat of social conservative Republicans nationwide.

The success of Ketner and other socially liberal Democrats running on explicitly pro-gay rights platforms in traditionally social conservative friendly districts, would certainly tend to complete the trinity of broader Republican political decline. Not only are economic and national security focused conservatives losing on their traditional strong suit thanks to economic woes and Iraq, but the cultural debate may be shifting substantially leftward as well.

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Jason notices that a significant name is missing from the speaking lineup at the Republican convention. The libertarian South Carolina governor and longtime McCain backer would be an unexpected and welcome selection.

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Huckabee was interviewed on MSNBC on the day Fred Thompson withdrew. The liberation theologist took the opportunity to further ridicule and attack Fred and his supporters for supposedly injuring his campaign in South Carolina. Smart move Huck, really should endear you even further to Fred Thompson people who are now looking for a new candidate. Personally, I’m eagerly awaiting the bankrupt and collapsing Huckabee campaign’s political annihilation on Super Tuesday.

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John McCain’s daughter Meghan broke her heel the night of the South Carolina primary and had to spend the entire evening like this.

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Social conservatives and particularly crypto-socialist social conservatives (or “populists” if you prefer), are inevitably going to be a minority faction within the GOP. But to their great credit they themselves recognize this. The implications of that self-awareness are dire for Huckabee however.

Because their interests and perspectives are in many ways peculiar to themselves within the party, historically they’ve always been sensitive to their permanent political vulnerability. Thereby there is a tendency among social conservative voters to desert their insurgent leaders at the first sign of weaknesses (ala Pat Robertson, 1988). Weaknesses which could conceivably imperil their leveraged influence with the eventual broader party nominee and his regime.

As Mick Stockinger at Uncorrelated points out, these odd men out have smelled weakness on Huckabee and must soon begin their desertion from him to the establishment, in order to preserve influence. That’s because what the social conservatives are staring at now, is the prospect of being rendered completely irrelevant for the first time since perhaps 1976. Having supported the overthrow of the prevailing order in the Republican party by an extremist champion with a radical and unpopular agenda, only to watch him fail to seize control of the party, the coup plotters will soon be looking for ways to make themselves indispensable again.

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Byron York has a fairly instructive anecdote from South Carolina on Fred Thompson:

Last night I talked with Cyndi Mosteller, a strong social conservative who headed the Charleston County Republican Party from 2003 to 2007 and who supports McCain. When I asked about Thompson, she said. “He was the most anticipated candidate that I have ever seen. So many people on the ground were ready to run the ball for him, and they showed up in strength, but he didn’t really show up in strength. I think that probably Thompson is more of a private person. I don’t really think he’s cut out for the public run required of public office. I think it’s almost a personality thing; it’s certainly not an ideological thing. It’s like the public energy and the will to run are a little bit lacking there.” Talk to other South Carolina conservatives, no matter who they supported, and you’ll hear similar opinions. Thompson had a huge opportunity here.
(National Review)

The candidate everyone wanted to support, but no one did.

The most troubling thing about the Thompson personality problem is that it would arguably make for a splendid chief executive. We haven’t seen a presidential candidate who is this constitutionally predisposed against the sordid business of retail politics since Dwight Eisenhower. Of course we also haven’t seen someone with as substantial a resume as Ike’s since either. Perhaps our political culture has changed. Or more likely, to have a Thompson or Eisenhower personality on the trail, it helps to have toppled the Nazi Empire.

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The Huckabee campaign staff is bitter and suspicious (as usual). They’re blaming Fred Thompson’s 16% showing in South Carolina for ruining their efforts to flood the vote with a social-conservative surge.

The surge was nevertheless impressive when it came, in both its quantity and in its fantastically unrepresentative uniformity. Fully 83 percent of Huckabee’s voters were evangelicals and that was good for 128,000+ votes. But what was most impressive is that despite this, he didn’t win an absolute majority of the evangelical vote. Instead 27% voted McCain. The worst thing that happened to the Huckabee campaign was not Fred Thompson, but the fact that so many social conservatives had apparently come to their senses.

It now looks like the promised clerical takeover of the GOP has foundered for good. Huckabee’s message of social justice married with religious extremism will find even less of a perch among the libertarian political attitudes that dominate Florida opinion. And if Thompson does indeed plan to continue in his campaign in Florida, that would completely seal the fate of Huckabee ahead of Super Tuesday, a contest the good pastor has neither the resources nor the broader market appeal to succeed in if he’s anything short of the frontrunner.

Now if we can just prevent that Huckabee for Veep nod somehow.

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Exit poll data in South Carolina suggests there’s a big turnout from “white evangelical and born-again Christians.” Uh-oh.

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Romney is walking away with Nevada and has declared victory. American Research Group’s last-minute poll in South Carolina picked up an enormous Thompson surge (to 21%). However the exit polls are saying it’s the McCain and Huckabee show. Byron York writes a fine but sad obituary on the late developing FDT campaign that could have been. The Ron Paul campaign is upset about something in Nevada and demanded a delay in voting, which was refused. Surprisingly, Hillary is winning Nevada (and yet Bill Clinton still needs a sedative). Plus Russ Feingold called, he wants his record back from Edwards.

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Huckabee the liberation theologist is now tied with McCain in Rasmussen’s latest poll at 24%. One would hope for South Carolinians to regain their senses prior to the vote, but it doesn’t look good.

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Here’s some splendid news for those of us not delighted by the prospect of a liberation theologist takeover of the Republican Party. Rasmussen is reporting their new South Carolina numbers and Mike Huckabee has lost five points and Fred Thompson gained four since last week. Thompson now stands at 16%, Huckabee at 19%, with McCain reaping the rewards at 28%.

If Huckabee can be stopped in South Carolina, it’s quite probable that will be the end of him. Until of course John McCain’s advisers convince him to name Huckabee as his Vice Presidential nominee in order to appease the soc-con voting bloc (traditionally his strongest adversaries within the party).

Indeed, my friend Jason over at postpolitical (who is an ardent Huckabee supporter) is holding out hope for McCain to win the nomination if Huckabee fails, for precisely this eventuality. Even the slimmest chance of getting Huckabee anywhere near the levers of power is apparently enormously important to his supporters. But is it as important to his opponents to prevent that? It should be.

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