A Second Hand Conjecture

I’m honestly kind of surprised that people are surprised John Edwards had an affair on his cancer-ridden wife and fathered a baby. I mean, I know that’s something we thought was limited only to Republicans like Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani, but honestly? That’s a big shocker? So I asked my friend Dave, one of those clear-eyed Obamanauts I enjoy asking about current events, what he thought.

Josh: so hey how about that John Edwards
omigod a politician lied about having sex!
that’s so new and we’ve never had to deal with that before!

David: HAHA I KNOW
what the public wants to know is:

Josh: and people are freaking out about it
IS IT CURVED

David: WILL OBAMA DENOUNCE HIM!?!?!

Right, so there you have it.

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Well, Fred wasn’t in the game. It seems to me, that both he and Rudy damaged their campaigns by not entering and participating early enough. We don’t get to vote in a primary here in Indiana for a couple of weeks, and I have a feeling the Republican nominee will be locked in by then.

Glenn has a few interesting links…

http://instapundit.com/archives2/014970.php

After seven years of watching and fighting against Americans who wish to see the country suffer so that they can get at George Bush, the last thing I wanted or expected to see was conservatives saying they would rather see the country suffer than support John McCain over Clinton or Obama, so that they can “get the blame.”

A retreat before victory is assured in Iraq cannot be undone in 2012. And mandatory, single-payer, universal health care, once established, will not EVER go away either.

Good point to remember come November, the choice isn’t between two evils, it’s between the less then perfect Republican, and the far less perfect Democrat. Who matches more closely to your view on issues? That’s who you should think about voting for.

Glenn also says “To me this seems like much ado about nothing. McCain and Romney are both moderate Republicans; the differences between them have been exaggerated by those who don’t like McCain, and don’t have much bearing on what’s good for the country.”

He also linked to the Corner, where Stephen Spruiell remarks about McCain’s speech last night. I wasn’t watching any coverage last night. We watched NCIS and House, then watched the local weather radar when the Super Duper thunderstorms that moved through our area. So, I looked up McCain’s speech on his website, and it reads pretty good. It will also be interesting to see his reception at CPAC. Given all this I would probably support McCain in the general election. I don’t know what choices I’ll have for the primary in Indiana, so we’ll see the day of what I do.

http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/PressReleases/Read.aspx?guid=dd8d63d6-c35b-4af7-9684-cf8e9bcb118f

if I am so fortunate to win your nomination, I will work hard to ensure that the conservative philosophy and principles of our great party — principles that have done so well by the country we love — will again win the votes of a majority of the American people, and defeat any candidate our friends in the other party nominate. I am as confident tonight as I have ever been that we can succeed in November by uniting our party in our determination to keep our country safe, proud, prosperous and free, and by again making a persuasive case to independents and to those enlightened members of the other party that the great Ronald Reagan claimed for our party.

We will do it by standing up forcefully for those principles that have made our party and our country so successful, and by rejecting appeals for retreat and timidity in the face of the challenges of our time, challenges which are our duty and privilege to overcome. If I am the nominee of our party, I will not let anyone take this country backward to the days when government felt empowered to take from us some of our freedom to decide for ourselves the course and quality of our lives, or when we turned away from threats to our security that were so plainly gathering strength abroad. I have lived my adult life with one purpose greater than all others: to keep America safe from all enemies foreign and domestic. And I will never tire of the honor.

I am a Republican because, like you, I want to relieve the American people of the heavy hand of a government that spends too much of your money on things you neither want nor need, while failing to do as well as we should the things none of us can do individually. I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must defend our nation’s security wisely and effectively, because the cost of our defense is measured in losses so hard to bear and in the heartbreak of so many families. I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must respect our values because they are the true source of our strength; and enforce the rule of law, which is the first defense of freedom. I am a Republican because I believe the judges we appoint to the federal bench must understand that enforcing our laws, not making them, is their only responsibility. I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that government should tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary, and keep out of the way of the most industrious, ingenious, and optimistic people in the history of the world . I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that it is the strength, courage, wisdom and patriotism of free people — not the government — who have made this country the extraordinarily successful place it is. My friends, my purpose is to preserve and strengthen our freedom, the freedom I have defended all my adult life, and I will not let anyone or anything deter me.

Nothing in America is inevitable. We are the captains of our fate. We can overcome any challenge as long as we keep our courage and stand by our principles. I intend to make my stand on those principles, and trust in the judgment of the American people I serve. So stand up with me, my friends, stand up, and together let us put America — her strength, her ideals, her future — before all else. It is an honor greater than all others to serve this country, the love of my life, and I thank you from the bottom of heart for helping me serve her a little while longer.

Thanks to Glenn Reynolds and Gateway Pundit for taking note! Check out Lee’s take on the ecumenical reform coalition. While you are here ponder Europe and the non-economic man, take a quick presidential quiz and see who you really agree with. Do some candidates supporters pose a public safety threat? Explore the African Oil Boom and ask yourself why this isn’t on more people’s radar?

UPDATE:

Another good point linked from Glenn, Ilya Simon @ The Volokh Conspiracy

Many conservatives either supported or at least refused to aggressively oppose the Bush Administration’s massive expansion of domestic spending, most notably his prescription drug and education plans. They did so in part because conservatives for a long time felt a sense of affinity with Bush and trusted him. There is very little such trust between conservatives and McCain. It will therefore be much more difficult for him to win conservative support for comparable boondoggles.

That, combined with the restraining influence of divided government, will make it much harder for McCain to enact major new statist policies than it was for Bush during the years when he had a Republican majority in Congress. McCain might even end up emphasizing his anti-spending instincts in order to shore up conservative support.

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(Cross posted at Whatif?)

As a bridge player, I am well aware of competition. Sometimes you pitch a blowout. More often than not, though, winning is a matter of inches. It’s a matter of dogged determination. It’s a function of judging what is needed, changing strategy to meet it, and following through with whatever it takes.

Those who follow my opinions are well aware that I was a staunch Rudy supporter. When I read this Frank Luntz commentary today, however, the answers to why Rudy failed became far more apparent.

(more…)

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(Cross Posted at Whatif?)

This time, however, blame GWB for something few of us consider.

Rarely in recent American history had a political leader received such a visible testing ground for the character of his leadership. Giuliani projected a profound, steely calm, and an all-encompassing competence—announcing the latest street closings or bus service changes one minute, pledging resolve and stressing American unity the next, reassuring New Yorkers all the while. He also provided Americans with a lesson in the old-school stoicism that is rapidly passing from our national life. Yet it was a stoicism that left no doubt about the suffering inside. Asked for an update on casualty figures at one point, he shook his head and said unforgettably that the losses would be “more than we can bear.”

It was in the ruins of Ground Zero, of course, that Giuliani’s presidential ambitions became plausible. His mayoral record in New York prior to September 11 more than justified a presidential run, but New York mayors, even great ones, are never considered presidential timber, barring some unique and monumental circumstance. Giuliani’s campaign difficulties have been well documented—from his moderate stands on social issues to his messy personal life, from his questionable primary strategy to his sometimes baffling passivity as a candidate. But his departure from the presidential field represents, in the end, a symbolic break from the preeminence of September 11 in our national consciousness. The psychologists tell us that we need closure—as if anything short of death ever wraps up conclusively—and one way or another, we have all long since moved on personally from that day. But Giuliani’s absence from the campaign will remove a visceral political reminder as well—a flesh-and-blood mayor who stood, covered in ash, and spoke to the nation’s greatest city on its darkest day. None of the remaining candidates can match his standard of leadership and record of accomplishment; one hopes that we choose wisely in his stead.

Perhaps Giuliani should blame Bush for his campaign’s demise. If Bush had not been so successful in preventing another domestic terrorist attack, Giuliani’s relevance to voters would be painfully obvious, and his deviations from party orthodoxy less compelling. Instead, he and Bush, the two public figures most associated with September 11, will watch from the sidelines as America turns the page.

I remain frustrated, a little angry – and saddened that Rudy is out of the race. If only….

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(Cross posted at What if?)

Did Rudy lose because the purportedly “ruthless” candidate was too nice?

Most critical in the closing days of the contest, when he desperately needed to reinsert himself into the narrative, was Giuliani’s inexplicable refusal to draw contrasts with his rivals, especially the surging McCain, whose votes were coming directly out of the former mayor’s hide.

“Within the campaign, there was broad strategic consensus to engage the opposition,” shared a frustrated adviser. “But whether it was subtle or aggressive or stuff in between, the reality was that it was his decision, and his opinion was that that was not the way he wanted to run campaign.”

“He just didn’t want to do [contrast ads],” said another source close to the campaign. “He rejected a lot offers.”

“You see what that gets you — maybe McCain will send him a thank you note.”

And

“I’m proud that we chose to stay positive,” Giuliani said after the Florida results were known. Even beyond his unwillingness to launch negative ads, in fact, Giuliani declined to raise direct contrasts with his rivals on the campaign trail.

Of course, I do not know if this evaluation is accurate or not. If it is, however – those of us who bemoan the nastiness and brutality of some campaigns should realize: we get what we pay for. If we do not reward candidates who attempt to run above board, based-on-the-issues campaigns, then we will not see more of them in the future.

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Arnold has to govern liberal California, Rudy had to govern liberal NYC and McCain…McCain is from Arizona. So what exactly is his excuse for his dramatic shift to the Left over time? Lest you think he has one, here’s a very good interview from Kudlow & Company with Arizona Senator Jon Kyl, who is championing the cause of slashing corporate taxes to induce growth, while his colleague McCain rants about the evils of big business. Just some info in case you’ve ever wondered if like Arnold and Rudy, McCain’s liberal positions are induced by electability concerns in demographically fluid Arizona. Kyl has managed to remain staunchly conservative for years while being easily reelected. On a media note, Kyl’s 2006 reelection is often described as “narrow” by the press. 53-43 isn’t narrow.

H/T: Larry Kudlow

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Earlier in the day, you might have been wondering how much of your assets might melt away, as markets around the world gyrated with perceived increasingly negative news. Later, on political blogs everywhere, reports that Fred Thompson was ending a run for his party’s nomination.

Then, news that a young and successful actor had died, most likely from a drug overdose.

Usually my evenings are a strange brew of real estate work, reading blogs, playing or watching bridge online, editing photographs, and so forth. In the background, talking heads on the various political shows fill me in on what has happened during the day – occasionally inducing some mental error while I compete!

Tonight, I thought that a majority of these shows would be devoted to discussing the future for Republicans now that Fred was dropping out.

Wrong!

Oh, yes; Thompson got some time. But – just as on the Internet (Fred; 174 hits; Heath Ledger, over 1,800) – almost all the focus was the death of Ledger.

Please do not misunderstand me. The death of a vibrant young person is a terrible tragedy. I myself have faced the illness of addiction in my own family, and words can barely express the pain and the awful outcomes that it can produce.

Still. On political cable channels, would one expect hour upon hour of focus about a movie star, rather than on the people who will soon lead our country? I would not – but – once again, I prove myself to be a poor prognosticator of what might occur.

Back to the politics. Fred wasn’t “my guy” (Rudy was and is). Yet, Thompson would have been “my guy” had he gotten the nomination. Smart, humble, straightforward, intelligent … I particularly loved when he stood up to that ridiculous interviewer in Iowa, who wanted him to state in one or two words what he thought about some of the most important issues facing us. He wouldn’t do it. If Fred couldn’t have the opportunity to really explain his viewpoint – at least 30 or 45 seconds! – well then, he would not play along.

I wish we had more like him.

And, as long as I am wishing, I wish that whoever does get the nod to be our next president might have some insight about addiction. The War on Drugs and “Just Say No” have been sad failures. I don’t know the answers. I only hope that others may have a glimmer of a solution.

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At this point it’s worth asking: Is Rudy Giuliani running a presidential campaign, or a Florida vacation? Of course, not that I’d blame him for the later.

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