Tag Archive 'polls'

Have National Politics Urbanized?

For those of us not living in the concentrated sprawl of the coastal and Midwestern metropoli, it is often extremely perplexing how urban Democratic mayors in places like Chicago and Philadelphia can compile lengthy and embarrassing records of incompetent and failed policies, yet remain wildly popular within their urban constituencies. Even as these mayors accumulate massive public debts while governing with a seeming indifference to economic and developmental realities, there is often a certain immutability to their popularity. It is doubly surprising how mayoral characters of this sort are consistently reelected to office in enormous majorities, frequently over vastly superior Republican opponents.

It occurs to me that as the United States becomes ever more urban concentrated, is it not conceivable that we should expect to see this bizarre phenomenon replicated in national politics?

(more…)

Sphere: Related Content

Obama Makes Big Gains

Obama puts up some significant gains in both the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls today. Gallup data suggests undecideds are breaking for Obama, while Rasmussen data seems to suggest a strengthening of Democratic party support. Take your pick I suppose.

Sphere: Related Content

Russian Imperialism and the Election


(photo: Chris Dunn)

John Bolton argues that the future of Russian imperialism in Eurasia rides on the outcome of the US presidential election. Unsurprisingly, he pitches McCain: “First reactions, before the campaigns’ pollsters and consultants get involved are always the best indicators…McCain at once grasped the larger, geostrategic significance of Russia’s attack.”

That’s evidently a sentiment shared by the American electorate.

(more…)

Sphere: Related Content

End of Presidency Job Approvals

Approval ratings for recent presidents at the end of their final terms. Bush will presumably end somewhere in Carter’s 1980 territory.


(About.com)

Lest that depress McCain supporters, such measures can of course be highly misleading in predicting general election outcomes for their successors. Nixon’s 1968 victory was a damned near run thing, and despite the lingering unpopularity of Nixon in 1976, and a generally toxic atmosphere for the GOP in general, it should be remembered that Ford nearly beat Carter (popular vote: 50.1 to 48%, electoral college 297 to 240). Of all these presidents’ personal histories, political philosophies, personalities and general images, McCain and Ford’s are probably most similar. Right down to being Naval war heroes.

Speaking of which, if you’ve never read the story of how a young Lt. j.g. Gerald Ford saved the ship one night in the Pacific, it’s worth a moment to do so.

Sphere: Related Content

Underdogism Redefined

Leftblogger Darryl Holman has calculated the probability of Obama winning the electoral college based on (somewhat) recent state polls to be 98.7%. If you think that’s rough, on Friday he had at it 100%.

Sphere: Related Content

Mysterious McCain

The bewilderment the press is expressing at the supposed impossibility of McCain’s progress in the polls is starting to get embarrassing. Beneath it there is the frustrated lament: “But we told you to vote Obama. Why aren’t you complying?”

Sphere: Related Content

Touring the Low Road

The Obama campaign has a new video response to McCain. It’s an interesting approach. The heart of the ad is the beginning, in which quotes from major pro-Obama media editorials are superimposed over McCain, calling his (unspecified) criticism “baseless,” “baloney,” etc.

Since there is some evidence in the polls that the positive press attention Barack has been receiving may be having a counterproductive effect, might it be unwise to let your press advocates perform your defense in your own ad? Given the situation, it might seem like a further blurring of the separation lines between independent media and political campaign. Naming the spot for a line taken from a profoundly and explicitly partisan New York Times editorial can’t help either.

This ad may hint that a system of mutual reinforcement has emerged between the Obama campaign and certain media organizations that is essentially ineluctable and indissoluble. If so, the more pressure and stress that is put on that relationship as symmetry, the more brittle and uncomfortable it may become for both parties. Were I McCain, I’d attack that point harder than he is.

Sphere: Related Content

The Politics of Personal Destruction

The Politico notes a rather amateurish effort from Hillary Clinton:

Obama muslim dress

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe accused the Clinton campaign Monday of “shameful offensive fear-mongering” by circulating a photo as an attempted smear.

Plouffe was reacting to a banner headline on the Drudge Report saying that aides to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) had e-mailed a photo calling attention to the African roots of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

McQ lays waste to the latest tactic from Hillary’s campaign:

In fact, this picture has been circulating among blogs for a couple of days and it really shows nothing but another in a long line of politicians doing what politicians do when they go to visit foreign nations. Recently, for instance, we saw George Bush in a Saudi robe.

McQ follows up with a series of pictures revealing just how silly and stupid this tactic is. Personally, I think it shows just how desperate Hillary is , as Peter noted before, since her chances of securing the nomination are exceedingly unlikely at this point. According to Intrade, Obama has a better than 80% chance of winning the nomination (80.5 bid/82 ask), while Hillary is mired around 20% (19.5 bid/19.9 ask). Meanwhile, Clinton’s RCP average is trending downwards, while Obama’s is on the rise. And then today, liberal pundit Jonathan Alter takes a look at the writing on the wall and advises Hillary to quit before the Texas and Ohio primaries:

If Hillary Clinton wanted a graceful exit, she’d drop out now—before the March 4 Texas and Ohio primaries—and endorse Barack Obama. This would be terrible for people like me who have been dreaming of a brokered convention for decades. For selfish reasons, I want the story to stay compelling for as long as possible, which means I’m hoping for a battle into June for every last delegate and a bloody floor fight in late August in Denver. But to withdraw this week would be the best thing imaginable for Hillary’s political career. She won’t, of course, and for reasons that help explain why she’s in so much trouble in the first place.

Withdrawing would be stupid if Hillary had a reasonable chance to win the nomination, but she doesn’t. To win, she would have to do more than reverse the tide in Texas and Ohio, where polls show Obama already even or closing fast. She would have to hold off his surge, then establish her own powerful momentum within three or four days. Without a victory of 20 points or more in both states, the delegate math is forbidding. In Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22, the Clinton campaign did not even file full delegate slates. That’s how sure they were of putting Obama away on Super Tuesday.

Tenacity is an admirable trait in a fighter, except when coupled with egotistical selfishness. As her campaign circles the drain, expect more ridiculous attacks from Team Hillary.

Sphere: Related Content

Intervention Needed

I’m disappointed with the emerging results in the GOP primaries too (the Nightmare Ticket is near), but I’m actually starting to worry about Mr. Hewitt: “McCain can’t be considered a frontrunner by any conventional standard.” Except in polls, wins, and delegates of course.

H/T: Cadillac Tight

Sphere: Related Content