A Second Hand Conjecture

According to the Associated Press, a sequence of interviews with Democratic leaders has revealed this to be the political plan being recommended to the Obama campaign:

1. Tie the Republican to an unpopular President Bush.
2. Let no charge go unanswered.
3. Stress plans to fix the economy.

Well, I’m not sure any of these items is good advice, with a possible qualitative exception on #3.
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A couple of days into Russian-declared, universally unrecognized independence (excluding Hamas and Belarus), South Ossetian officials have expressed their desire to be annexed by Russia. The brave new defenders of Russian imperialism on the American Left have thus suddenly found their arguments for fake Ossetian self-determination on Georgian soil dealt a sudden blow.

Apologizing for Russian foreign policy ventures is historically always a tricky business. The sensibility of which is perhaps now restricted to the brief thaw of Yeltsin’s dream of a benign commonwealth of trade and friendship. A dream now sustaining an excruciatingly painful death on the world stage.

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Daniel Nexon gets an email from an anonymous Russia hand speculating on the grim possible outcomes for Georgia:

This is not going to end well for Georgia. Russia has expanded its targets beyond the vicinity of South Ossetia, hitting not only military but also economic and communications targets throughout Georgia. It is unlikely, though, that Russia intends to set up a puppet government as they did in Chechnya–the local population is far too hostile, and I doubt that they have any reliable local elites that they can turn to. More likely, we will see a clear demand for independence for both Abkhazia and South Ossetia (though I suspect that shortly after obtaining independence, S. Ossetia would petition to rejoin the motherland, which Russia would, of course, graciously grant.

Rough agreement from me. Although I don’t know if we could consider the population of Chechnya friendly to Russian ownership, nor after extended warfare consider the Russophile local elites mostly living.

And suppose for a moment that Georgia doesn’t stop fighting? Russia’s supply lines –excuse me, supply line– to South Ossetia is precarious to put it mildly. Saakashvili wants a ceasefire, but Russia always has a problem with pressing advantages.

With winter ahead, a fighting defense will necessitate expansion of the geographic corridor of occupation. And in pushing back Georgian attacks, it’s very easy to escalate into conquering the entire country (even without the possible coastal attack). If the Russians do that, they certainly aren’t going to leave a hostile government in power (which is the only kind that could get elected at this point). The “puppet state” scenario seems very much in the cards as things stand (if this plays out militarily).

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At least 160,000 deaths in the suppression of Chechen independence by Russia. Just a reminder for when someone tries to set Russia up as the great defender of South Ossetia’s right of national self-determination. There’s a diplomatic argument for that, but it isn’t one that can be made by Russia and especially not by a Russian imperial invasion force.

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