A Second Hand Conjecture

Ben Armbruster at ThinkProgress is upset Fred Barnes and Dick Morris are blaming Obama for the post-election declines in the stock market. Armbruster’s case is a little defensive and misjudged (he cites the New York Times’ opinion, as if that would mollify critics), but then the transition from implacable critic of a government to determined apologist for a proto-government has been swift for all at TP.

However, in a general way he does have a point to object on I think. People are out to make cash gains where and when they can in this market, and opportunities have been rather few lately. To the extent that there was a specific macro cause, it seems to me the abrupt election day rally was the more likely culprit for the subsequent sell-off. That is what we’ve seen in other isolated spikes on events this year. The Saturnian habit for feeding yourself by eating your children, rather than letting them grow up to sow the fields, if you will.

Although it should be said that Dick Morris’ point that provoked Armbruster’s ire is not entirely unreasonable either. There’s certainly some incentive for selling on a small gain now, if you expect capital gains taxes to be substantially higher later. Comprehensively rejecting that as a buried motive is not reasonable.

No Comments »

Yep:

Understand: Palin is under attack because she was such a good choice.

[...]

After years of electing plasticized creations of political consultants, we have the chance to vote for a real person with real peoples’ problems. In standing by her, McCain speaks volumes about his attitude toward women and his empathy for those who face family troubles. His loyalty illustrates not just his decency, but his sensitivity and good sense.
(Rasmussen Reports)

1 Comment »

Dick Morris offers McCain some hardball advice with an ultimatum: destroy Obama in August, or lose.

No Comments »

photo: Tim Kelley

After getting obliterated in the Potomac primaries, new polling shows that Barack is beating Hillary Clinton in next week’s Wisconsin vote too. In light of becoming the frontrunner, Obama now appears to be further orienting himself toward the general election, and away from a contest with Hillary that is rapidly taking on the appearance of a petty squabble.

State of the Union grabs the relevant portion of Obama’s speech:

John McCain is an American hero. We honor his service to our nation. But his priorities don’t address the real problems of the American people, because they are bound to the failed policies of the past. George Bush won’t be on the ballot this November, but his war and his tax cuts for the wealthy will.

[snip]

And I admired Senator McCain when he stood up and said that it offended his “conscience” to support the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy in a time of war; that he couldn’t support a tax cut where “so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate.” But somewhere along the road to the Republican nomination, the Straight Talk Express lost its wheels, because now he’s all for them.
(State of the Union)

It looks like Obama will attempt to employ the successful Clinton/Morris strategy for dealing with Dole’s impressive record. By intentionally praising the historical McCain, he can make him look anachronistic. When coupled with the inevitable political contradictions that arise from any lengthy residence in the Senate, it can be a potent attack (as Bob Dole found out).

No Comments »