Comments on: The Third Party Personality Disorder http://asecondhandconjecture.com/index.php/2008/12/05/the-third-party-personality-disorder/ Questions through the veil of ignorance Mon, 30 Jan 2012 22:08:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Peter Jackson http://asecondhandconjecture.com/index.php/2008/12/05/the-third-party-personality-disorder/comment-page-1/#comment-225749 Peter Jackson Sun, 07 Dec 2008 17:35:25 +0000 http://asecondhandconjecture.com/?p=6382#comment-225749 It is Duverger's Law that drives the two-party system. It is completely unavoidable without radically altering the Constitution and our way of government. This is why only two things that I can see that cause party shifts: one is "star power" of a 3rd party political candidate, the other is an epic fail of one of  the two main parties. The "star power" strategy requires BIG TIME star power to overcome Duverger's inertia. In US history it's never happened in spite of some pretty colorful characters making credible attempts. One place where it has happened, and recently, is Israel, with Ariel Sharon's centrist Kadima Party, which went from non-existence to power in five months or so. Kadima essentially replaced Likud at the top of Israel's electoral heap along with the Labor Party. I'm pretty convinced that the obstacles presented to third parties by Duverger's Law are virtually insurmountable. The only real hope for structural change is approval voting electoral reform that opens up a loophole in Duverger by eliminating "wasted vote" syndrome. Otherwise? Forget it. It is Duverger’s Law that drives the two-party system. It is completely unavoidable without radically altering the Constitution and our way of government. This is why only two things that I can see that cause party shifts: one is “star power” of a 3rd party political candidate, the other is an epic fail of one of  the two main parties.

The “star power” strategy requires BIG TIME star power to overcome Duverger’s inertia. In US history it’s never happened in spite of some pretty colorful characters making credible attempts. One place where it has happened, and recently, is Israel, with Ariel Sharon’s centrist Kadima Party, which went from non-existence to power in five months or so. Kadima essentially replaced Likud at the top of Israel’s electoral heap along with the Labor Party.

I’m pretty convinced that the obstacles presented to third parties by Duverger’s Law are virtually insurmountable. The only real hope for structural change is approval voting electoral reform that opens up a loophole in Duverger by eliminating “wasted vote” syndrome. Otherwise? Forget it.

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