yours/
peter.

In fact, if Russia does accept terms along the lines described in that piece, I think it supports a lot of what Lee has been writing about the pressure’s and concerns Putin and Friends may be having over what happens next? You confuse running through scenario’s that discuss the issues with any given course of events with predictions. I think, assuming the report is accurate and the characterization is accurate as well, the Russians are very concerned about how to remove Saakashvili from power without turning him into a bigger issue.

For someone with a great deal of knowledge, you would be better served serving it up as educated speculation. I know of other times you have been absolutely convinced of how certain things would turn out, and with abusive scorn toward any who questioned that certainty. Analyzing scenario’s intelligently is not something to be criticized, nor is seeing other possibilities making fun of you. It is just a willingness to think things through, publicly and with an open mind. If things turn out largely as you feel they might, it doesn’t mean you analyzed it well, or badly. The future is way too uncertain to grant you or anyone else some special claim of prescience.

I know, that is an old argument with you, but I suggest re-reading those old dust-ups. You made good arguments on the facts then, maybe even better than me. However, I pointed out then the fatal flaw wasn’t on the facts, or reasoning about their implication, but in your belief that you had certainty about the outcome, or even what the facts were, or even what had already happened and why. I will assert I was right about that, and I would have been right even if events had played out the way you thought they would.

I probably need to search on registan, but why would Saakashvili lose power?

Because he’s an emotional goofball, who got Georgia into a war it couldn’t win, despite repeated warnings that the actions he took would be used as a pretext by Russia to invade.

But, the Russian demand for his removal changes things politically. Nationalism in Georgia is defined as resistance to Russian hegemony and it’s always a losing battle. The great heroes of the nationalist narrative, such as Cholokashvili, are almost all militarily, losers. By merely staying in power, he defeats a Russian war aim. More success than most in the historical narrative can claim.

As for Saakashvili..sigh. Since you’ll doubtlessly have a post up here idiotically saying “Lee said Saakashvili would stay in power! Josh proven right for once!” if he resigns, as should be clear from the post, that argument too is speculative. Dozens of things can happen where the rationale I laid out fails.

Great news BTW.