When There’s Nothing Left to Burn You Have to Set Yourself on Fire
Joshua Foust on Aug 11 2008 at 12:27 pm | Filed under: Foreign affairs
Sorry for my absenteeism on this, guys, but I’ve barely had the time to write on Registan.net about the war in Georgia (seriously, go there for some really in-depth discussions about what is going on), and have simply neglected copying posts over here. I’m sorry. Since I don’t have the time to follow the play-by-play very closely thanks to work, and since in my experience that doesn’t indicate much of use anyway, I’ll summarize my writing on the conflict so far.
For starters, this was a surprise to no one. Weeks before Saakashvili struck Tskhinvali, the South Ossetians were simultaneously shelling Georgian positions while using Russian transports to evacuate thousands of women and children for “summer camp” in North Ossetia right when Russia was massing troops across the border. Coupled with the years of Russian provocations in Abkhazia, including downing of Georgian drones by Russian aircraft, and the repeated military strikes by Russian helicopters on Georgian territory, it should surprise no one that Saakashvili finally reacted.
That being said, Saakashvili obviously miscalculated the extent to which he was being baited by Russia, and his normal brinksmanship sort of telegraphed that he would take decisive action at some point.
At the same time, the ultimate result of this fight will not be the annexation of Georgia by Russia, nor will it be an immediately dramatic reordering of the energy policies of the region. Russia will not touch the BTC pipeline, nor will it occupy Tblisi. They just want Saakashvili gone—the equivalent is how we used to view Fidel Castro… and if the opportunity presented itself we would have tried (and did several times) to kick him out of office without formally occupying the territory.
It is also important to note that Russia’s financial markets are not doing well right now. They have been steadily sinking since outright hostilities broke out, and they can be expected to sink further the longer conflict continues. So don’t expect anything long term from the Russian military—war is not as profitable for them as it is for us. If they do drag this war out much longer, they lose big time—financially, militarily, and internationally. Which they might do, because one should never underestimate Russian hubris.
Believe it or not, Russia actually is responsive to global opinion. Just not in the way we like to think. A key part of Russia’s geopolitical strategy is to breed European dependence on Russia energy, a goal they have largely achieved. At the same time, that isn’t permanent, and if Russia pushes too far Europe could panic, actually bother to come up with a unified energy policy, and diversify its supplies. Russia does not want that. But they do want to dictate terms along their southern flank.
Russia also has a compelling interest in preventing Georgian ascension into NATO. It has been interesting to see how much diplomatic activity has been in Brussels, rather than Tblisi, Tskhinvali, or Moscow. They are keenly aware of their audience here, and given the fact that they’ve made their point—NATO’s stipulation that Georgia solve its “frozen conflicts” is clearly still valid—they have little reason to occupy the capital and provoke a global response.
Questions remain. Did NATO’s stipulation, along with years of American support, funding, and supply, create the conditions for this war? Right now, it looks like it did (so what culpability does the West have?). Does this war conclusively prove that Russia is politically rotten, and that Medvedev is worse than a paper tiger since it’s all been about Putin? Quite possibly. Does this mean that Caspian energy will no longer flow according to Western interests? Almost definitely. Can this mean, since Russia stands a serious chance of overstepping its bounds and provoking a counter-movement from the international community, that the U.S. might in all of this emerge the actual winner? A remote possibility.
More ominously, what happens to Georgia? Saakashvili is finished, but there is no one to replace him. As the electoral crisis last year demonstrated, even when he voluntarily resigns and holds fair and open elections, he remains the only real leader the Georgians have. Alas, he is finished now. What, or more importantly who, comes next? It will almost certainly be one of the many opposition leaders, all of whom share varying degrees of warmth toward Russia. The winner of that political fight—which will be metaphorically if not physically bloody—will determine the ultimate result of this war. So in that sense, Russia is taking just as big a gamble here as Saakashvili did.
But basically, it is all very fluid, and there are too many variables to conclusively discuss what the war will really mean. Which is a cop-out in a way, but it is all one should feel comfortable saying.
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How far have its troops penetrated into Russia now? Russia is the sole architect of this war. And you seem to be in disagreement with yourself on that matter. As you noted correctly earlier, if it wasn’t now, it would be tomorrow, or the next day.
That’s because as you also note, Russia is pursuing long-standing strategic aims and they’ve already changed their public conditions for success four times by my count a) cease-fire, b) Georgian withdrawal c) Georgian area disarmament d) Georgian leadership change (only partially public on this last one so-far)…
As for your hostility to the notion of Russian annexation, the reestablishment of a patrimonial regime in Georgia is annexation by another name. You needn’t own territory if you can comprehensively control it.
And I think you’re terribly mistaken that an advance on the capital is out of the question, with perhaps a fourth to half of Georgian territory now under occupation….and if Saakashvili holds out? They’ll advance. He cannot be allowed to remain in power under any circumstances.
Apart from all that, one of your better posts Josh. I enjoyed it for a change.
Well, I didn’t say they won’t advance on the capital, just that they won’t occupy it. Tblisi isn’t Grozny, and Georgia is not Chechnya. It is really damned tough to control, and as brutal as Russia can be, they will not politically survive being brutal enough to subjugate all of Georgia. They will isolate it, yes, and they will force out Saakashvili (and he should go, right now), but
it is a major losing proposition for them to formally annex the state itself.
As for the intricacies of client relationships… there is an enormous body of literature on that. Russia doesn’t have to create a dependent state, just clear the way for one of the many pro-Russian opposition groups to take up power in the capital. I wouldn’t exactly call that annexation any more than I’d call our own aggressive policies of regime change annexation.
I wouldn’t exactly call that annexation any more than I’d call our own aggressive policies of regime change annexation.
There’s no similarity at all…and that is highly instructive for this question. Our two wars, Afghanistan and Iraq, are wars to confer independence on a freed people. Russia’s efforts, should they result in a proxy state, are an effort to coercively revoke the independence of a people against their will, and in a very real sense, annex the state.
I think most Georgians would recognize the essential indifference of it too. You don’t need the Russian flag flying over the State Chancellery, to endure unpardonable submersion under the yoke of distant Russian domination. Indeed, a gutted sovereignty, with its own flag preserved but robbed of all meaning, is in many ways the most insidious sort of imperial confiscation.
I am pretty tired of comparisons of our actions in Iraq and Russia’s as well, though I don’t think Josh was saying they were the same, just that neither was annexation. Still, plenty have made that comparison, and it is false.
Also, I agree Lee, it is close enough to annexation for government work, and I am not even sure they won’t formally annex. Putin may make that mistake, and a mistake it would be. Either way, I think Putin has made a mistake. Putting up with an insurgency like we did in Iraq for the sake of national interest/moral imperative is a lot different in its effect upon your own nation than something less noble (at least in theory) and right on your doorstep. One would think they had learned that lesson by now with Afghanistan and Chechnya. Puppet governments don’t insulate you, in fact, they usually just draw you in.
Hey guys, just so we’re clear here: there will not be a puppet government in Tblisi. Russia will be happy to get a ruler that will not actively antagonize them the way Saakashvili did. But there is literally no popular politician who will be a Russian puppet, and there is no way, short of a full-scale Soviet-style political decapitation that Russia will get someone who will be.
Here’s the thing: two factors that no one is talking much about carry enormous consequence.
1) The Russian military is for all intents and purposes a paper tiger. None of the weapons they’re using in Georgia are better than a generation old, and last time they were used widespread it was either in a far smaller territory (Chechnya) or a badly lost battle with a vastly better equipped and trained army (Afghanistan). The Georgians are much more anti-Russian than the Chechens, and they enjoy the benefit of having a good six years of U.S. army surplus. Russia simply cannot commit enough force to occupy Tblisi, or to enforce a puppet regime. It won’t happen.
2) The Georgians are incredibly anti-Russian. So much so that, even Eduard Shevardnadze, who was at best only mildly pro-Russian even despite being the former Soviet Foreign Minister. He was not a particularly bad ruler, but was still forced out after a mildly fraudulent election. Georgia will not tolerate Russia dictating terms.
Both of these mean that Russia will enforce what it considers to be appropriate punitive measures, quite probably including the ouster of Saakashvili, but they are in no position to occupy the country in such a way that they overwhelm any chances of a widespread revolt the moment they step back. And they can’t afford to stay very long, either, not with the way their economy is reacting to the fighting.
So let’s cool down the “Russia is an invincible juggernaut” talk, yes?
So?
A point right there. One of the things that often gets missed in Georgian politics is that Shevardnadze was as pro-US as Saakashvili in some respects. American tilt/orientation predates the Rose Revolution by a decade.
What else is new. Hasn’t prevented 200 years of Russian domination. Anyone who neighbors Russia, is “incredibly anti-Russian.”
They occupy the country.
Sure will, as soon as I allege it.
Now that you mention the BTC pipeline, I’ll share my conclusion that the alleged strike-that-missed on said pipeline was in fact an expression of precision targeting as a warning of will, and perhaps artfully considered for Israeli perception, as the Israelis and we were both serving advisory functions for Georgia proper. I’m also feeling more and more certain that a slight miscalculation on the Russians’ part could easily precipitate overall economic disaster for the Russian Federation if too many multilateral contracts are canceled all at once.
As an aside, I’ll link you all to <a href=”http://www.mediachannel.org/wordpress/2008/08/11/conflict-opens-front-in-the-media/#comment-21750″>a post I just commented on</a>, which might offer some amusing insight into where I’m coming from. My way of thanking you all for taking me in these past few days
I’m sorry for the bum coding. Let me just paste the link below:
http://www.mediachannel.org/wordpress/2008/08/11/conflict-opens-front-in-the-media/#comment-21750
Great news: Georgia is going to quit the Community of Independent States. In 1989 we were the first USSR republic that started the independentist movement which ultimately lead to the breakup of the empire. Now it’s time for the CIS and maybe even Russia itself to break up and we’re the trailblazers here too.
Don’t let the Russians be mistaken. Since our independence there has never been a prorussian president in Georgia and Putin’s Communist-fascist regime won’t be able to find a puppet Georgian politician who can run us with Russian support.
We will fight till last Ivanushka-Durachok leaves our country or finds his tomb in Georgia.