Comments on: Uncertain Future of Iraq http://asecondhandconjecture.com/index.php/2008/04/02/uncertain-future-of-iraq/ Questions through the veil of ignorance Thu, 17 May 2012 04:17:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Joshua Foust http://asecondhandconjecture.com/index.php/2008/04/02/uncertain-future-of-iraq/comment-page-1/#comment-186793 Joshua Foust Sun, 06 Apr 2008 21:22:34 +0000 http://asecondhandconjecture.com/index.php/2008/04/02/uncertain-future-of-iraq/#comment-186793 I don't think Wolf Howling is a very authoritative voice on the subject either. Ignore the rest of the partisan boilerplate, but look at <a href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174915/ira_chernus_the_general_and_the_trap" rel="nofollow">this survey of coverage</a> of the offensive in Basra: if the Iraqi army was facing, at the very best, a 4% desertion rate before the cease-fire was moderated by a man we consider an international terrorist, it's tough to spin it in a really positive direction (he also admits to some other biases that I think fatally undermine his argument, like withdrawal carries infinite cost while continued occupation carried infinite benefit). In fact, the more I read of it, the more I think Basra is demonstrating the stranglehold Iran already has on Iraqi politics: they go east, not west, when looking to settle their internal squabbles. That doesn't bode well for us. I don’t think Wolf Howling is a very authoritative voice on the subject either. Ignore the rest of the partisan boilerplate, but look at this survey of coverage of the offensive in Basra: if the Iraqi army was facing, at the very best, a 4% desertion rate before the cease-fire was moderated by a man we consider an international terrorist, it’s tough to spin it in a really positive direction (he also admits to some other biases that I think fatally undermine his argument, like withdrawal carries infinite cost while continued occupation carried infinite benefit).

In fact, the more I read of it, the more I think Basra is demonstrating the stranglehold Iran already has on Iraqi politics: they go east, not west, when looking to settle their internal squabbles. That doesn’t bode well for us.

]]> By: Ymarsakar http://asecondhandconjecture.com/index.php/2008/04/02/uncertain-future-of-iraq/comment-page-1/#comment-186642 Ymarsakar Sun, 06 Apr 2008 20:18:46 +0000 http://asecondhandconjecture.com/index.php/2008/04/02/uncertain-future-of-iraq/#comment-186642 In fact, amateurs when they look at violence or war, expect it to be complex and confusing. They think something is wrong if it isn't. But nothing is wrong. When things are kept to the simplest model, via the KISS principle, things are going quite well actually. Keith, you might be interested in reading Wolf Howling's post on the same subject. http://wolfhowling.blogspot.com/2008/04/assumptions-conclusions-about-sadr.html In fact, amateurs when they look at violence or war, expect it to be complex and confusing. They think something is wrong if it isn’t. But nothing is wrong. When things are kept to the simplest model, via the KISS principle, things are going quite well actually.

Keith, you might be interested in reading Wolf Howling’s post on the same subject.

http://wolfhowling.blogspot.com/2008/04/assumptions-conclusions-about-sadr.html

]]> By: Ymarsakar http://asecondhandconjecture.com/index.php/2008/04/02/uncertain-future-of-iraq/comment-page-1/#comment-186614 Ymarsakar Sun, 06 Apr 2008 20:04:16 +0000 http://asecondhandconjecture.com/index.php/2008/04/02/uncertain-future-of-iraq/#comment-186614 Violence war is pretty simple. It is fog and friction that makes it seemingly very complex. People that study complexity will never be able to smooth the chaos of war into order. Studying complexity inevitably creates more of it. The object towards dealing with complexity is to break it down to its fundamental orderly parts and principles. Sometimes you get it wrong, and then your side loses and gets hacked apart, but sometimes you also get it right. Violence war is pretty simple. It is fog and friction that makes it seemingly very complex. People that study complexity will never be able to smooth the chaos of war into order. Studying complexity inevitably creates more of it.

The object towards dealing with complexity is to break it down to its fundamental orderly parts and principles. Sometimes you get it wrong, and then your side loses and gets hacked apart, but sometimes you also get it right.

]]> By: Joshua Foust http://asecondhandconjecture.com/index.php/2008/04/02/uncertain-future-of-iraq/comment-page-1/#comment-186446 Joshua Foust Sun, 06 Apr 2008 18:19:33 +0000 http://asecondhandconjecture.com/index.php/2008/04/02/uncertain-future-of-iraq/#comment-186446 The Kagans are <a href="http://abumuqawama.blogspot.com/2008/04/kagan-kagan-on-basra.html" rel="nofollow">not reliable sources</a> on Iraq. That they broke down the fighting in Basra to US/Good Guys vs. Iran/Bad Guys says as much. Both sides receive various levels of funding and support from Iran. They're too simplistic. The Kagans are not reliable sources on Iraq. That they broke down the fighting in Basra to US/Good Guys vs. Iran/Bad Guys says as much. Both sides receive various levels of funding and support from Iran. They’re too simplistic.

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