Comments on: AQI’s Last Stand?

By: Joshua Foust

Joshua Foust — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 09:46:00 +0000

Kind of. It’s not so much laying down the law as rival Shia factions going after each other. Remember the Nir Rosen report I got so much flack for posting? In it, he relayed multiple stories of the Sunni complaining the Shia government was too beholden to Iran. I sort of look at the fighting in Basra as Sadr the nationalist (who hates Iranian influence in Iraq) versus Maliki and the ISCI (which is entirely beholden to Iran). In other words, we are probably supporting the wrong guy simply because he happens to have engineered his way into Prime Minister some months ago.

I dunno, I could be wrong on that (though I know I’m not wrong on ISCI’s affiliations or their influence in the Maliki government). But I don’t see how it bodes well for the country.

By: MichaelW

MichaelW — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 05:12:20 +0000

Sorry for the delay, but I did want to acknowledge your cogent comments. Surely the cease-fire is relevant, but I think this is the prime point:

Michael, you’re right to see this as a hopeful sign that AQI can’t seem to find a foothold. It’s one problem out of the way, and we’re all quite happy to see it fading in importance. But you’re also right to be cautious …

AQI, and al Qaeda may be settled (in Iraq), but that is not the be-all-end-all of our work there. I like your characterization of “one problem out of the way” because, if successful, that is exactly how I see it. The space has been created, and now it’s up to the Iraqis to follow through.

I know you view the recent Badr bridages/Shia militia violence as disruptive (and it is), but I can’t help but notice that it is the primarily Shia government forces that are battling them and laying down the law. The peace is definitely fragile, but there are hopeful signs. Shia Iraqi army clamping down on Sadr’s Shia forces are one such sign. Let’s just hope that it’s a sign of better things to come.

By: Joshua Foust

Joshua Foust — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 03:11:05 +0000

Woops, I hadn't read the news today when I left that comment. Which I guess makes it more apropos.

By: Joshua Foust

Joshua Foust — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 23:05:15 +0000

I’ve never understood the neglect paid to al-Sadr and Sistani during all the hype about AQI (who never, according to the DIA, made up more than 15% or so of the insurgents we were fighting). They used to be enemies number 1 (at various points). While it’s great they have been largely co-opted, I still worry that the presence of powerful Shiite clerics with their own armies won’t play well with the Sunni Sons of Iraq, who have formed the great bulwark against AQI.

Michael, you’re right to see this as a hopeful sign that AQI can’t seem to find a foothold. It’s one problem out of the way, and we’re all quite happy to see it fading in importance. But you’re also right to be cautious (and not predicting the end of “major combat operations”… again?… like Yon). Iraq’s problems remain multitudinous, and far too many are a hair’s breadth from spinning out into violence again.