The Competition

(Cross posted at Whatif?)

As a bridge player, I am well aware of competition. Sometimes you pitch a blowout. More often than not, though, winning is a matter of inches. It’s a matter of dogged determination. It’s a function of judging what is needed, changing strategy to meet it, and following through with whatever it takes.

Those who follow my opinions are well aware that I was a staunch Rudy supporter. When I read this Frank Luntz commentary today, however, the answers to why Rudy failed became far more apparent.

Ideologically, Giuliani’s greatest stumble wasn’t on abortion or gay marriage. It was immigration. His exchange with Mitt Romney in the Tampa, Fla., debate was an unmitigated disaster. He accused Romney of taking a holier-than-thou position on the issue, to which Romney responded: “I’m sorry, immigration is not holier than thou, mayor. It’s the law.” The man who had brought order to lawless New York was hoisted by his own petard. Game, set and match for Romney.

Here is a man who turned New York City around by standing his ground on principle. As his final term drew to a close, he was proved right, his critics wrong.

But in the big race, presidential candidate Giuliani got mired in linguistic small potatoes. He would recite micro-level statistics from his term as mayor but fail to connect the dots for the audience on a macro level. Participants in my focus groups were baffled by his long-winded, underpowered debate responses — particularly after hearing Romney and John McCain answer in crisp, clear, concise sound bites.

His ads, which few people saw because he was spending so much of that $40 million on private jets and stays at five-star hotels, were equally mystifying. Rather than real people — or Rudy himself — talking about how New York had changed, his campaign used unseen voice-overs to tell his story, which destroyed the message of credibility in the eyes of the viewer.

Giuliani did not lose this campaign; the campaign lost this campaign. His advisors should have been screaming in his ear, but instead they sat idle — frightened and intimidated by the prodigious potential president they were hired to help elect. At one point, I heard Giuliani himself suggest that his own polling showed he was winning the hearts and minds of the electorate.

A candidate can be the smartest in the bunch, the most capable, a strong leader, an individual with good principles. Yet, all of that can fall by the wayside if the candidate does not appreciate how to connect with voters.

As I read through Luntz’ assessment, I kept on thinking “Yep. Correct. I see it.” Rudy had a great message and a great resume. He was not able to sell it to the public.

Say what you will about all the candidates. McCain has been able to calculate what it takes to sell himself to voters. He has gotten into every battle, gone every mile to meet as many people as candidate, traveled and campaigned relentlessly. At the end of the day, perhaps the bottom line is little more than Rudy just had less “fire in the belly” than McCain has.

Whatever it was, surely some of it was the ability to reassess strategy and do what is necessary to win. McCain figured out how to do that; Rudy did not. In the game of inches, more and more it looks as if McCain may have captured the race.