A Second Hand Conjecture

Cross-posted to The Conjecturer

Defense and the War

• Steven Biddle, one of the strategists behind the surge and an advisor to General Petraeus, thinks Iraq might not be a disaster if we keep 100,000 troops there for the next 30 years. Also worth noting, as Lynch does, that the lack of consideration for Maliki or the national government at all speaks poorly to Iraq’s capacity to exist as a cohesive nation (just as the ethnic cleansing speaks poorly of its capacity to remain cleanly split into three autonomous regions). So, let’s absolutely celebrate the reduction in violence back down to early 2006 levels… But let’s not also lose sight of the enormity and difficultly of what lies ahead.
• Lots of talk about Pakistan’s nuclear deal with the U.S., in which we tried to supply them with safeguard technology but were partially hampered both by Pakistan’s understandable secrecy and America’s not-understandable secrecy. Nitin has more on what this could mean for Pakistan as a whole, but I don’t understand some of the outrage I’ve read—we really do want countries to have appropriate safety features on their nuclear weapons so there can never be an accidental launch… right? Surely that small bit of pragmatism is worthwhile.
• An absolutely heart breaking account of a soldier’s famous face and his broken return from Fallujah. I really do hope we fractured so many people for a decent purpose; the behavior of the Administration, however, leaves me constantly with doubt.

Around the World

• The NY Times has an incredible four-part series (so far) running on the horrible problems China’s explosive growth has spawned. It doesn’t say much new to China watchers, but seeing this much data in one place—with videos, audio slide shows, interactive maps, and lots of statistics—shows how much more awesome web news can be over print or TV.
• Here is a good overview of the nasty strategic choices we need to make in Pakistan. Over at Registan.net I take a peek at just how misshapen our foreign policy seems to be concerning the Pakistan/Afghanistan confluence. I also take a shot at some more slipshod reporting on Afghanistan and (surprisingly, given their military worship) a poorly-formed critique of the HTS. Oh, and let’s not forget the rise of radical Islam in the Ferghana Valley.
• David Axe is on his way to Somalia to cover the African Union and some of the fighting. Should be interesting writing. After he’s done there he goes to Basra to report on the British withdrawal. Must be an interesting job.
• I, too, shake my head at much of what passes for analysis at National Review Online these days. I remember it being well-written and rigorous; but I don’t know if that was just because I didn’t know any better, or if it was before Rich Lowry ruined it.

Back at Home

• I saw Georgie James Friday night at the Black Cat. It was a great show, even if a bit subdued. I’m tickled pink to see them getting positive local press, too—makes me hopeful they might break big.
• There is an interesting dynamic at Wonkette: the straight guy “huh-huhs” about random half naked chicks, while the new chick “tee hees” about random half naked firemen and hits bear parties.

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