A Matter of Faith and Hope

Despite the fact that many of the sources I’ve read, political, military, and iraqi civilian, all think Iraq would turn into a major bloodbath should we leave without finishing the job, it turns out we’re all just wrong… Things would be better off if we just left Iraq.

The author states we shouldn’t have bought into the war based on “best-case” assumptions, and we shouldn’t buy into an escalation based on “worst-case” assumptions. Yet, he presents his best-case assumptions for what would happen should we leave, as justification of why we should leave.

Read the whole thing, but I thought the following was rich:

What most Iraqis do seem to want, according to numerous polls, is for American forces to leave. Even within the current, skewed Iraqi political system, a majority of Iraq’s parliament supports a U.S. withdrawal. If we add to the mix the powerful Sunni-led resistance, including former Baathists, Sunni nationalists, and tribes, an overwhelming majority wants to end the occupation.

Brilliant analysis, all our enemies over there want us to leave.

Reality has a way of screwing with assumptions. Of course, if we were to wait until we could confirm or eliminate assumptions,we wouldn’t accomplish much of anything. Our best guess is often a WAG, but, guess we do, because the risk of inaction is often greater then the risk of a particular course of action. The best we can do is to try and make better guesses. Of course, one of my mottos is, “Hope for the Best, Plan for the Worst.” Which is something we didn’t do nearly well enough with this war.

In the end, the reality will likely be somewhere in the middle. If we were to leave, violence would likely escalate, though hopefully not to the levels of the worst-case assumptions. Similarly, if we stay, things will likely improve, though unfortunately, not as quickly as our best-case assumptions would tell us.

I think it all comes down to a matter of faith and hope. If you already look at Iraq as a failure in progress, then nothing we can do will make it better, so we might as well leave. If you look at Iraq as a success in progress, then there is room for improvement, and we should do whatever it takes to bring about success. And while it looks like some in Congress have lost hope, some in Baghdad retain it.