I daresay that those who have read my recent posts on President Bush’s new strategy for Iraq and my comments here, at QandO, and elsewhere believe that I am fairly gloomy in my outlook on the situation in Iraq. I believe that is very likely an accurate assessment and I continue to be highly “gloomy,” “dour,” and “skeptical,” of the new Surge plan. In this case, however, I’ve got reasonably good reason to be so. General George Casey, the current commander of US forces in Iraq (soon to be replaced by General Petraeus), believes that the Surge will take at least 3-6 months before results will be seen. Ok, assuming that General Casey’s assesment is correct (and who would have better firsthand knowledge of the situation in Iraq than him), let’s think about what that means for us. Firstly, we’re going to be pulling approximately 20,000 extra troops into Iraq (mainly Baghdad). That number is probably going to include a fair number of soldiers who have already done at least one tour of duty in Iraq. Secondly, the Surge strategy virtually mandates heavy combat. The key objective of the Surge’s mission is the suppression of militia power. I suggest that the militias will not simply go quietly into the night here. They are going to fight back. That means casualties. Probably a relatively high number of casualties, in fact (US and Iraqi). Thirdly, this operation is not predicted to bear fruit for three to six months, minimum (per General Casey). Months and months of intense fighting and potentially heavy casualties before we see any concrete results. Assuming that the strategy succeeds.
I understand the frustration that many have had with our most recent strategy in Iraq which appeared to be “stay the course.” Indeed, said strategy seems not to have produced the desired results and it has become politically unfeasible. Are our only options then the Surge or complete disengagement and evacuation? I don’t really know, however I am fairly confident that those two options will both produce unwanted results to the parties advocating them. Should the Surge succeed, I shall happily eat crow. My concern is primarily with those in the line of fire. I do not wish to see their lives squandered on hasty strategies conceived out of frustration, impatience, and political strategizing. I want to see the Surge succeed, but I cannot believe that it will do so and that it will result in more unnecessary waste of life. After six months of heavy fighting and casualties, Congress will pull the plug and our troops will be evacuated. What exactly will have been achieved then?
I am not only fairly confident of that, I would suggest that that is a foregone conclusion.
I also think it is a foregone conclusion that no matter what happens there will be a large number of people that will claim they said it will prove what they thought all along.
I still like Dale’s comment at the beginning of our podcast, “I don’t know.” A wonderful phrase that is vastly underutilized.
I’ll make my own predictions.
If it actually helps it proves to me that I was right in thinking it might help.
If it doesn’t it will prove I was right in thinking that it might be a futile gesture that only put off the day of admitting we just need to withdraw.
Are you sure you’re not a politcian?
A typical politician after the fact ignores the one or the other statement depending on which makes him look best. The politician I respect admits both outcomes are possible and he went with the best judgment he could muster. This is not a plea for waffling.
In behavioral finance it has been shown that investors suffer from several self-deception biases.
Self attribution bias- We attribute good outcomes to skill and bad outcomes to luck. In politics we attribute things that work out our way to our prescience and foresight and bad outcomes to the lack of those qualities in those we disagree with.
This is exacerbated by Overoptimism and Overconfidence- When students are questioned as to who will finish in the top half of the class 80% feel they will. When people are asked to make a forecast or prediction and to establish when they are 98% sure of them selves they turn out to be right between 60% and 70% of the time. needless to say on the ones they are correct on they really believe the odds were 98% in their favor.
These two sins seem to stem from the illusion of control and the illusion of knowledge. The illusion of knowledge comes from the belief of people that the accuracy of their forecasts increases with more knowledge (who doesn’t believe that?) This has been tested and it is demonstrably false. Daniel Boorstin once said:
(hint: read this blogs tagline under the title.) So I am pretty impatient of appeals to authority who claim they know how complex systems where we cannot know all the variables will turn out.
Guideline: You know less than you think you do.
The illusion of control comes from people’s belief that they have influence over uncontrollable events. All of us suffer from this and can only avoid it by specifically (and only with great difficulty) knowing the problem is there. How ridiculous are we? People pay more for lottery tickets that contains numbers they choose than for a random draw. Not me you say, yes you do. People are more likely to bet on the toss of a coin before it has been tossed than after it has been tossed and the outcome hidden, we think it makes a difference. We can affect the outcome. This combines with information. The more information the more in control we feel.
So what is the lesson expressed in my predictions and how to act upon them?
Be less certain in your views; aim for timid forecasts and bold choice. Decisive action upon the information you have has more affect on the outcome than the amount of knowledge or confidence you have in making the choice. Bush (and most everybody always) has repeatedly suffered from the opposite choice, feeling that they have more knowledge and certainty than they do while taking timid, half actions.
So, I am not sure, but I think given the choice of surge or no surge I go with surge or withdraw. Given the likelihoods of the various outcomes that is my best guess with full awareness of its potential failure.